ii. The last seven weeks of sales at KC car dealership can be seen in Table 2 below. Table 2 Week Sales 25 2 3 30 27 31 27 4 29 30 6. 7. 8 a. Use a three-period weighted-moving average forecast to determine a forecast for the 8th week using weights of 3, 2, and 1 (where the most recent week receives the highest weight). (Round all forecasts to the nearest whole unit.) b. Calculate the MAD for this forecast. c. What does the MAD indicate?
Q: Week Passengers 440 11 446 12 451 13 455 14 464 15 996 474 17 476 18 482 a. Explain why an averaging…
A: After observing the data, we can see that there is an upward increasing trend. In case the average…
Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of…
A: Given - Week Forcast Actual Demand 1 0.95 0.72 2 1.08 1.00 3 0.95 1.07 4 1.22 0.97
Q: I Using a numerical example, demonstrate to Mr. Ferdinand how he can use a three- week and a…
A: Forecasting the future demand/sales can be done by various methods like moving average, weighted…
Q: Month 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 Flat-Screen Sales 30 32 30 39 33 34 34 38 36 39 30 36 a) Determine the…
A: Find the given details below: Given Details: Month Flat Screen Sales 1 30 2 32 3 30 4…
Q: 10. What is the approximate forecast for May using a four-month moving average? a.38 b.43 c.44 d. 47
A: Given data is
Q: 17. Statistical and observational methods, where adequate data or settings are available in which to…
A: Forecasting: It means the prediction of the future period. The prediction will be done based on the…
Q: Judgmental forecasts have the following strengths, except___________. a. Can include “inside” and…
A: A prediction based on subjective data. A judgmental forecast is one that is made by someone who is…
Q: a. Plot the monthly sales data. Do you observe any trend, cycles or random variations? b. Forecast…
A: Forecasting is a technique that uses recorded data as inputs to make instructed estimates that are…
Q: Pumpkin Pies Galore is trying to forecast sales of pies forthe month of December. Demand for pies in…
A: Given data Now, calculating Edith's forecast demand for the December Average for December =
Q: Week Cheeseburger Sales 1 354 2 344 3 368 4 317 5 361 Based on historical observations…
A:
Q: 1 demand of cotton(intones) by Westham textile S.C are shown below 1 2 3 4 7 8 year Actual 10 11 13…
A: Note: Since you have posted multiple parts in the same questions, we will be answering the first…
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for…
A:
Q: i. What are the 3-months moving average forecasts for months 4, 5, 6 & 7? ii. What are the 3-month…
A: Forecasting is estimated predictions for the present as well as for the future as per the past data.…
Q: 1 39 44 40 4 45 38 43 7 39 a) Forecast sales using 4-week weighted moving averages with weights…
A: A) The weights of the 4 periods are respectively 0.4,0.3,0.2,0.1 and their sum is 1Calculation of 4…
Q: What is meant by the term tracking the forecast? In which two ways can forecasts go wrong?
A: Tracking the forecast means comparing the actual demand with the forecasted demand. It is used to…
Q: Explain the trade-off between responsiveness and stability in a forecasting system that uses…
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: Q1 Given the Supply chain cost for a service is PKR 195 and the customer value is PKR 225. Determine…
A: Supply Chain Surplus= Revenue generated from customer - Total cost incurred to produce and deliver…
Q: A large Portland manufacturing would like to forecast the monthly demand for a piece of…
A: Given that: Month Actual Demand 1 14 2 17 3 20 4 21 5 25
Q: Consider the data below which includes sales data and the forecasts that would have been made using…
A: Given data is
Q: The MAD for Method 1 = enter your response here thousand gallons (round your response to three…
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In business…
Q: a. Plot the monthly data b. Forecast September sales using: i. A linear trend equation ii. A…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series of sales. Year Time Series…
A: Find the Given details below: Given details: Year Quarter Time Series Value Y1 1 1 36 2 24…
Q: (a) Compute the forecast sale using a = 0.20 and a = 0.35 respectively, (b) solve for MAD, SSE, MSE,…
A: Forecasting is the process of estimating the future demand using previous or historic data or…
Q: Problem 1: Sheet 1 a) Find on the Internet a time series, which contains at least 20 entries.…
A: Find the Time series data below: Note that, the below data was collected from the website…
Q: Corporate triple-A bond interest rates for 12 consecutive months follow. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10…
A: a)
Q: FORECASTING- EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING QUESTION 3 PERIOD ACTUAL 1 42 40 3 43 4 40 41 39 7 46 8 44 9. 45…
A: In the question, we have time-series data, Actual data are presented over 11 periods, I would use…
Q: 4. What is the difference between trend and seasonality in time series data? 5. Here are the errors…
A: Note: - Since the exact question that has to be answered is not specified, we will answer only the…
Q: 1. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: constants of .6 and .9, develop fo recasts for the sales of VWBeetles. What effect did the smoothing…
A: Note: - Since the data for the 'Volkswagen Beetles' question is not given we will answer the…
Q: Two most important factor of forecasting techniques what are those ?
A: Forecasting is a method of making predictions. based on historical and present facts.
Q: Sales Month (000 units) Feb. 19 Mar. 18 Apг. May 15 20 Jun. 18 Jul. 22 Aug. 20 a. Plot the monthly…
A: The known data is given below:
Q: QUESTIONS All Ans to 3 Decimal Places Use the Naiive method to forecast for Feb -Aug 2021 2…
A: As per our guidelines, we are supposed to answer only three sub-parts if multiples sub-parts are…
Q: 4. A new car dealership is considering opening branches in three of the largest cities in the state.…
A: Forecasting is the practice of predicting future events by focusing on long-term trends. Basically,…
Q: b. Explain the term “wrong” as it pertains to a good forecast
A: A forecast that is done by considering all the trends from current and historical data and by…
Q: Gasoline sales Times Series week sales (1000s of gallons 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6…
A: Find the Given details below: Given details: week sales (1000s of gallons) 1 17 2 21 3 19…
Q: 13. Two forecasting methods have been used to evaluate the same economic time series. The results…
A: Formula:
Q: (3) A weighted average using.60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June (4) Exponential smoothing…
A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: 2. Using the same table above, compute the weighted moving average forecast for demand for four…
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future outcomes on the basis of past data. In businesses…
Q: . What is the mean square error for time periods 2 through 4 using the average forecasting method?…
A: I am using the 2 periods simple moving average method to find average forecasts. It is the average…
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for…
A: Given, Week 1 2…
Q: 9 438 18 482 a. Explain why an averaging technique would not be appropriate for forecasting. b. Use…
A: Forecasting is an important part of any business. It helps to predict future demand and production…
Q: October 5 a) Forecast the demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average. b) Use a…
A:
Q: b) Use a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of.1, .3, and .6, using.6 for the most recent…
A: Forecasting is the process of determining the estimated future demand using historical information…
Q: 9. For a specific model of a shoe brand, Carrefour (NIZWA) experienced a sales of 1000 units, 1100…
A: Formulas used: Weighted moving average = ∑widi where w is the weight. d is the actual demand/sales i…
Q: Explain any forecasting technique. How c you measure the forecast o Give o Yamplo rror?
A: Qualitative forecasting It is a statistical technique to create predictions regarding the longer…
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuterfirm serving the Boston hub, a re shown for…
A: Given data is
Q: b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method= 22 sales (round your response to a…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future events or trends based on past and present data.…
Please answer all questions
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps with 2 images
- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
- The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?
- The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of Northern Central Bank. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? Is it guaranteed to produce better forecasts for the future?The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Create a chart of the series with the forecasts superimposed from this optimal smoothing constant. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? d. Write a short report to summarize your results. Considering the chart in part c, would you say the forecasts are good?4. The sales (in millions of dollars) for a 15-month period are as follows. Month Sales Month Sales 390 9 470 2 565 10 1000 3 395 11 490 450 12 485 490 13 525 560 14 550 7 420 15 530 8. 565 a. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use a = 0.2. Find MSE for both methods. b. Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE? C. Find the forecast for the next month using the best forecast method. 5.