Q3: The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with five states ofnature (events) and five decision alternatives,EventAlternative12345A100701159560В95120120901501801306016012080755010095E60140100170160Identify the decision taken under the following approaches:(1) Pessimistic(2) Optimistic(3) Equal probability(4) Regret(5) Hurwicz criterion.Note: The decision maker's degree of Pessimistic (a) is 0.21 Add File

There is a total of five alternatives, for each alternative, we have five events of five states of…

Answered: Identify the decision taken under the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis

Problem 2P

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7. Consider the following decision table, which Joe Blackburn has developed for Vanderbilt Enterprises: States of Nature Decision Alternatives Probability: 0.35 0.25 0.40 Low Medium High A $35 $80 $65 B $85 $50 $70 C $55 $70 $75 D $70 $85 $65 E $70 $75 $85 Part 2 The alternative that provides Blackburn the greatest expected monetary value (EMV LOADING... ) is ▼ D E A B C The EMV for this decision is $_______(enter your answer as a whole number).
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.
The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with two states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision Alternative State of Nature $1 d₁ d₂ (a) Suppose P(s₁) = 0.2 and P(5₂) = 0.8. What is the best decision using the expected value approach? The best decision is --?-- with an expected value of 12 $₂ 6 3 5 (b) Perform sensitivity analysis on the payoffs for decision alternative d₂. Assume the probabilities are as given in part (a), and find the range of payoffs under states of natures, and so that will keep the solution found in part (a) optimal. As long as the payoff for s₁ under d₁ is --?-- , then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. As long as the payoff for s₂ under d₁ is --?-- Is the solution more sensitive to the payoff under state of nature s₁ or 5₂? O $₁ 0 5₂
A decision table describes results associated with which of the following A) Two decision variables B) One decision variable and one uncertain variable C) Two uncertain variables D) None of the above
A decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of alternative and states of nature. O True O False * Previous Next ► MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 セゴ F5 $ & レ 9 * 00
Solve the following problems using the Decision Analysis. Construct first the decision tree, and then use Bayes' Formula to determine the optimal decision. Decision Problems 1. The Quano Company is considering the purchase of mineral rights on a piece of property for P1 million. The price includes a seismic test whether the land is of type X or Y geological formation. The test cannot be done until after the purchase is made. According to reliable information 60% of the land is of type X formation and 40% of the area is of type Y. If the company decides to drill on the land, it will cost P2.5 million. It may hit oil, gas, or a dry well. Drilling experience indicates that the probability of hitting oil is 25% on X formation and 10% on Y formation. The probability of hitting gas is 30% on X formation and 45% on Y formation. The estimated return for an oil well is P5 million and from a gas well, P3 million. Should the company purchase mineral rights?
Q3: Answer the following: The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with two states of nature and three decision alternatives, Decision State of Nature Lternative S1 S2 D1 10 30 D2 -5 20 D3 60 -10 Identify the decision taken under the following approaches: (1) Pessimistic (2) Optimistic (3) Equal probability (4) Regret (5) Hurwicz criterion. Note : The decision maker's degree of optimism (a) being 0.6.
Answer A.2 a-e a-c is in the picture here is d and e d) What is the qually likely decision? e) Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV.
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3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information
DAAPS A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. 1 States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 80 10 Rent 60 45 Lease 50 40 Using the Maximin criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? Best decision Payoff
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. EVPI: $ fill in the blank 3 A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F | s1) = 0.10 P(U | s1) = 0.90 P(F | s2) = 0.40 P(U |…

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Identify the decision taken under the following approaches: (1) Pessimistic (2) Optimistic (3) Equal probability