For a payoff matrix with m alternative actions, n states of nature, and no probabilities, which of following decision criteria is best? O Savage minimax regret O Laplace O Hurwicz O It depends on the goals of the decision maker.
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- Supposed that a decision-maker faced with four decision alternatives and four states of nature develops the following profit payoff table.1. If the decision-maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the four states of nature, what is the recommended decision using the MAXIMAX criterion?2. What decision alternative will he choose if using the MAXIMIN criterion?3. What about MINIMAX REGRET CRITERION?4. What decision would he make if using the criterion of realism at alpha 0.6 is used?Answer A.2 a-e a-c is in the picture here is d and e d) What is the qually likely decision? e) Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV.DECISION THEORY. A man has to decide wheter to resign or not from his present position and apply for a job offering him 2x his present salary, that is if he passes the qualifying test. At present, he receives $3000 monthly compensation. The offer from another company has a condition that he will not be allowed to take the qualifying test, he will immediately be taken in and have a monthly pay of $6000. If he fails, he will remain jobless, he feels that his chance of passing the test is 35%. Suppose he decides to base his decision on expected value, should he resign from his post or not?
- Consider the following payoff (cost) table with probabilities for each state of nature (s) Decisions D1 D2 0.1 s1 3 state of nature 1-0.1 s2 17 20 The expected value for the best (optimal) decision isMNGT 21 – Management Science Decision Tree 1. A manager has to decide whether to prepare a bid or not. It costs P5,000 to prepare the bid. If the bid is submitted, the probability that the contract will be awarded is 50%. If the company is awarded the contract, it may earn an income of P100,000 if it succeeds, or pay a fine of P8,000 if it fails. The probability of success is estimated to be 80%. Should the manager prepare a bid? Mr. del Mundo, the president of RFC Corporation is faced with deciding whether to purchase a patent to develop a new product or not. If the company purchases the patent, it should develop the product. The selling price of the patent if P50,000. There are two ways of developing the product: the Modern Method and the Traditional Method. It costs P20,000 to use the Modern Method, and P15,000 for the traditional Method. The proby, of success in the Modern Method is 60%, while it is 70% for the Traditional Method. If the product is successfully developed, it will…DAAPS A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. 1 States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 80 10 Rent 60 45 Lease 50 40 Using the Maximin criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? Best decision Payoff
- What is the best decision alternative under Maximax criterion? (Provide complete decision table solution) DIHL Co. is a Danao-based logistics company owned by Engr. Donald H. Lalican. Anticipating the growing demand for delivery services, he developed a strategic plan for the year 2022. The options are to hire additional delivery crews in their Mandaue facility, construct a new facility in Talisay City, or subcontract Ohlala Move, a small- time company. A study conducted by the marketing department forecasted the following payoff values, which are summarized in the table below. The values are expressed as gains and alpha = 0.6. States of Nature Decision Alternatives Failure Low Moderate High Hire additional Drivers in Mandaue -450,000 -250,000 250,000 500,000 Construct a facility in Talisay -800,000 -400,000 300,000 700,000 Subcontracting Ohlala Move -100,000 -10,000 150,000 300,000 Hire Additional Drivers in Mandaue Construct a Facility in Talisay O Subcontracting Ohlala Move Both…A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the tablebelow. Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is:a. Maximax?b. Maximin?c. Laplace?d. Minimax regret?NEXT YEAR’SDEMANDAlternative Low HighDo nothing $50* $60Expand 20 80Subcontract 40 70A landlord can either lease for one or two years or sell offices outrightly for K100 million with payoffs as follows: Lease -100 50 150 Sell 100 100 100 The probability of rejecting is 30%, leasing for one year is 50% and for two years 20%. Required: What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available? What is the expected value of perfect information? A decision maker is looking to minimising costs through three alternative decisions a1 , b2 and c3 under two states of nature/events S1 and S2 with S1 having a probability of 30% . For a1 payoffs for s1 K100 million and s2 K540 million For a2 payoff for s1 K150 million and s2 –K50 million For a3 payoff for s1 K350 million and s2 K320 million Required: Find EMV and recommend the course of action Find the…
- Question 2 An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Bonanza(B) Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. $200 m $0 0.4 Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 0.1…Come up with a decision using each of the different criteria under conditions of uncertainty using the table below. The payoff values are expressed as LOSSES and alpha = 0.5 *a.) What is the best of the best payoff value? b.) Which decision alternative has the best of the worst payoff value?c.) Which decision alternative has the minimum payoff value of the maximum regret? (CHOOSE FROM THE CHOICES) -A,B,C -B, F, G -C,D,E -C, G, F -E, F, GYou often hear about the trade-off between risk and reward. Is this trade-off part of decision making under uncertainty when the decision maker uses theEMV criterion? For example, how does this work in investment decisions?