Tracy is the the Director of Supply Chain at Circuits Inc. An accurate forecast at Circuits Inc. is very important because of the long lead times for raw materials. Tracy has asked you to quickly pull together forecast accuracy information over the last 5 months to share at the upcoming S & OP meeting. Month Demand Forecast 1,200 1,150 2 1,750 1,530 3 2,250 1,962 4 1,600 1,745 1,550 1,628
Q: Explain the term “wrong” as it pertains to a good forecast?
A: In forecasting techniques, the word "wrong" refers to a difference between the real and forecasted…
Q: snip
A: Answer: It is important to measure the accuracy of forecasts, for any forecasting technique and…
Q: Using a 3 period moving average, what is the forecast for day 8?
A: 3 period moving average is a forecasting model which helps to identify the forecast as the average…
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Q: Given the following demand data,a. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of .40 for the…
A: 4-period weighted average forecast: Formula: Answer:
Q: Explain in detail about Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)?
A: Collaborative planning ,forecasting and replenishment - It is a process which combines several…
Q: The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months:…
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Q: Choosing between the three period and the five period forecasts, which one would you use as a…
A: Given data:
Q: The historical data for 4 periods demand are 65, 60, 80, and 70 respectively. Calculate the weighted…
A: The answers would be as follows:
Q: (a) Compute a weighted average forecast for the data listed below using a weight of 0.40 for the…
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Q: No single forecast methodology is appropriate under all conditions True or false?
A: Answer: What is Forecasting: Forecasting is an attempt to predict future events which will be used…
Q: The demand data for Double T Computer Services appears below. The company wants you to forecast the…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: forecast for weeks 7-24 using 6 week weighted moving average
A: Weighted moving average is a forecasting model which helps to identify the forecasting using the…
Q: Using the moving average forecast, is it possible to forecast a demand that is biggerthan any…
A: Forecasting is the procedure of prediction making for the future grounded on past as well as present…
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 6. 7 8 10…
A:
Q: When a business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment…
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A: Given information:Temperatures in last week is 33,33,38,36,43,23,28
Q: In order to increase the responsiveness (volatility) of following forecast models, what can you do?…
A: In order to increase the responsiveness of the forecast model using exponential smoothing, we need…
Q: DEMAND FORECAST WITH LINEAR REGRESSION Historical demand for a product is: Period MONTH DEMAND x2 XY…
A: Period (x) Month Demand (y) 1 January 12 2 February 11 3 March 15 4 April 12 5 May 16 6…
Q: Short term forecast can be used for the following operation.
A: Short term forecastUp to 1 year, usually less than 3 monthsPurchasing, job planning, staff levels,…
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 4 7 8 10 11…
A: Given - Table for demand seen in past years- Year Actual Demand 1 6 2 9 3 4 4 9 5 13…
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Q: Sales for a product for the past three months have been 200,350, and 287. Use a three-month moving…
A: A three-month moving average method averages the actual demand for the previous three months to…
Q: Given the following demand data, Period Demand 1 44 2 42 3 44 4 42 5 47 a. Compute a weighted…
A: Given data is
Q: 3. You are using a 3 period moving average to calculate your forecast. Demand for period 1 was 90…
A: Given information:Demand period 1=90unitsDemand period 2=80unitsDemand period4=90unitsHere we have…
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Q: (a) Suppose the data in the table below represents total revenues (in $ millions) for one real…
A: Below is the solution:-
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Q: a) Forecast demand for each week, including week 10, using exponential smoothing with a 5 .5…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: a. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of 0.4 for the most recent period, 0.3 for the…
A: A weighted moving average forecast is a forecast of future values based on past values. A weighted…
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A: Find the Given details below: Given Details: Demand Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Week 1 102 114…
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A: Below is the solution:-
Q: Discuss how flexibility in production systems relates to the forecast horizon and forecast accuracy?
A: To understand the concept of a flexible production system, investigate how flexibility can be used…
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:…
A: Given Information:
Q: 5. Demand for patient surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few…
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Q: Not all the items in your office supply store are evenly distributed as far as demand is concerned,…
A: Given- Week Demand Week 1 250 Week 2 350 Week 3 550 Week 4 650
Q: Given the following demand data, compute a simple exponential smoothing forecast for alpha values of…
A: Given data is
Q: Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14,…
A: Given data; Weights ; (3/5) for period 10 (1/5) for period 9 (1/5) for period 8 Demand for ; 15…
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Q: How can you evaluate the accuracy of a forecast model? explain in detail
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?
- The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
- A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly relatives to predict demand. Quarter relatives areSR1 = .90, SR2 = .95, SR3 = 1.05, and SR4 = 1.10. The trend equation is: Ft= 10 + 5t. Over thepast nine quarters, demand has been as follows:Period, t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Demand 14 20 24 31 31 37 43 48 52Is the forecast performing adequately? Explain.7. Using both time series methods of forecasting, predict the number of meals that should be prepared for the next Monday. The forecast for the most recent Monday was 367 and for the most recent Friday was 354. a=0.3 Show your calculations DAY Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday WEEK 1 360 372 375 358 333 WEEK 2 375 381 373 368 377 WEEK 3 367 376 378 360 353 WEEK 4 373 380 376 363 370Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? Period 1 2 3 4 5 67.67 68.2 67.3 68.4 Value 73 66 64 73 66