Given is a decision payoff table. Alternatives Small Facility Medium Facility Large Facility Low 26 18 -7 Future Demand Moderate 21 31 30 High 18 22 42 a) The best decision under uncertainty using MAXIMAX is to select Blank 1 facility D) The best decision under uncertainty using MAXIMIN is to select Blank 2 facility =) The best decision under uncertainty using LAPLACE/EQUALITY LIKELY is to select Blank 3 facility ) If the probabilities for Future Demand when it is Low-0.35, Moderate -0.30, and High-0.35, the expected monetary value (EMV) for the large facility-Blank 4.
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- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Given is a decision payoff table. Future Demand Alternatives Low Moderate High Small Facility 52 42 43 Medium Facility 50 49 49 Large Facility -15 38 51 a) The best decision under uncertainty using MAXIMAX is to select ( ) facility b) The best decision under uncertainty using MAXIMIN is to select ( ) facility c) The best decision under uncertainty using LAPLACE/EQUALITY LIKELY is to select ( ) facility d) If the probabilities for Future Demand when it is Low = 0.35, Moderate = 0.30, and High = 0.35, the expected monetary value (EMV) for the large facility = .e) If the probabilities for Future Demand when it is Low = 0.35, Moderate = 0.30, and High = 0.35, the best decision under risk is to select ( ) facility.
- Given is a decision payoff table. Alternatives Low Future Demand Moderate High 91 130 102 81 Small Facility 111 Medium Facility 51 Large Facility -12 124 126 a) The best decision under uncertainty using MAXIMAX is to select Blank 1 facility b) The best decision under uncertainty using MAXIMIN is to select Blank 2 facility c) The best decision under uncertainty using LAPLACE/EQUALITY LIKELY is to select Blank 3 facility d) If the probabilities for Future Demand when it is Low = 0.35, Moderate = 0.30, and High = 0.35, the expected monetary value (EMV) for the large facility Blank 4. e) If the probabilities for Future Demand when it is Low = 0.35, Moderate = 0.30, and High = 0.35, the best decision under risk is to select Blank 5 facility.3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the table below. Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electronic action Demand Light Moderate $250,000 $90,000 -$100,000 400,000 440,000 400,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 780,000 Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree. Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.A company sells its products to wholesalers in batches of 1,000 units only. The daily demand for its product and the respective probabilities are given below. Demand (Units) Probability 0 0.1 1000 0.3 2000 0.4 3000 0.1 4000 0.1 a. Determine the expected daily demand. b. Assume that the company sells its product at $3.90 per unit. What is the expected daily revenue?
- 1. Consider the decision table given below. Find which Profits NI N2 N3 N4 decision will be taken, as a function of c (a real number) according to a. Wald's criterion, Laplace's criterion, and Hurwicz's criterion (take a-0.6). b. Find the range(s) of c for which all three methods uniquely lead to same alternative. SI 3. 4 6. S2 2 4 S3 6. S4 6. 6Problem 4-11 (Algorithmic) Following is the payoff table for the Pittsburgh Development Corporation (PDC) Condominium Project. Amounts are in millions of dollars. State of Nature Decision Alternative Strong Demand S₁ Weak Demand S₂ Small complex, di 6 Medium complex, dz Large complex, d3 8 14 20 3 -8 Suppose PDC is optimistic about the potential for the luxury high-rise condominium complex and that this optimism leads to an initial subjective probability assessment of 0.78 that demand will be strong (S₁) and a corresponding probability of 0.22 that demand will be weak (S₂). Assume the decision alternative to build the large condominium complex was found to be optimal using the expected value approach. Also, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the payoffs associated with this decision alternative. It was found that the large complex remained optimal as long as the payoff for the strong demand was greater than or equal to $17.1 million and as long as the payoff for the weak demand…The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand. ALTERNATIVE DEMAND LOW MEDIUM HIGH Alternative 1 40 80 150 Alternative 2 80 120 130 Alternative 3 100 100 100 a. Which alternative should be chosen using the equally likely decision criterion? b. Set-up the opportunity loss table. c. Which alternative should be chosen using the minimax regret criterion?