Exhibit 2A:Growth in working-age population Percent increase in civilian non-institutional population ages 16-64 Exhibit 2C: Drivers of GDP growth Average year-over-year % change 1.8% Native born Immigrant 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% Census forecast 5.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% Growth in workers + Growth in real output per worker Growth in real GDP 0.6% 0.4% 0.11% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 3.5% 3.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.05% 3.3% 0.2% 0.05% 1.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% '80-'89 '90-99 '00-09 10-19 '20-22 23-33 1.9% 2.5% 2.4% Exhibit 2B: Growth in private non-residential capital stock Non-residential fixed assets, year-over-year % change 2.0% 6% 5% 4% 1.5% 2022: 1.6% 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 14% 3% 2% 0.5% 1% 3.1% 2.5% 0.9% 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0% 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-09 10-19 20-23° 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 World potential GDP benefit under net zero carbon emissions by 2050 (percent deviation from reference scenario) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net GDP benefit Avoided chronic damages Sources: NGFS (2023), Scenarios Portal; IIASA (2023), NGFS Phase 4 Scenario Explorer; and IMF staff calculations. Note: NIGEM model with REMIND-MAGPIE inputs. The reference scenario is the Current Policies scenario with no transition but physical risk. Avoided acute damages Mitigation policy costs IMF

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
14th Edition
ISBN:9780190931919
Author:NEWNAN
Publisher:NEWNAN
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1QTC
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Related questions
Question
  1. Based on the charts consulted, comment what is expected from the American economy in the next years in general terms.
  2. Are there differences in the forecasts?
  3. How do you think the state will act in the future based on the chart variables that inform us about its behavior?
  4. What will the behavior of families and companies be like? 

Using these graphs provided, Answer the questions in an essay format, comparing the two. 

 

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top left) Census Bureau, DOD, DOJ; (Top left and right) BLS; (Right and bottom left) BEA. GDP drivers are calculated as the average annualized growth in the 10 years ending in the fourth quarter of each decade. *The latest period reflects 1Q20 to 3Q23. Future working-age population is calculated as the total estimated number of Americans from the Census Bureau, per the November 2023 report, controlled for military enrollment, growth in institutionalized population and demographic trends. Growth in working-age population does not include illegal immigration; DOD Troop Readiness reports used to estimate percent of population enlisted. Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements are based upon current beliefs and expectations. They are for illustrative purposes only and serve as an indication of what may occur. Given the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with forecasts, projections or other forward-looking statements, actual events, results or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated.

Exhibit 2A:Growth in working-age population
Percent increase in civilian non-institutional population ages 16-64
Exhibit 2C: Drivers of GDP growth
Average year-over-year % change
1.8%
Native born
Immigrant
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.5%
Census
forecast
5.0%
4.4%
4.5%
4.3%
4.0%
Growth in workers
+ Growth in real output per worker
Growth in real GDP
0.6%
0.4%
0.11%
0.8%
0.7%
0.3%
3.5%
3.4%
0.3%
0.6%
0.3%
0.05%
3.3%
0.2%
0.05%
1.2%
3.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
'80-'89 '90-99
'00-09 10-19
'20-22 23-33
1.9%
2.5%
2.4%
Exhibit 2B: Growth in private non-residential capital stock
Non-residential fixed assets, year-over-year % change
2.0%
6%
5%
4%
1.5%
2022: 1.6%
1.0%
2.4%
1.3%
1.9%
1.8%
0.3%
1.7%
0.5%
14%
3%
2%
0.5%
1%
3.1% 2.5% 0.9% 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.5%
0.0%
0%
50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-09 10-19 20-23°
55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
Transcribed Image Text:Exhibit 2A:Growth in working-age population Percent increase in civilian non-institutional population ages 16-64 Exhibit 2C: Drivers of GDP growth Average year-over-year % change 1.8% Native born Immigrant 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% Census forecast 5.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% Growth in workers + Growth in real output per worker Growth in real GDP 0.6% 0.4% 0.11% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 3.5% 3.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.05% 3.3% 0.2% 0.05% 1.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% '80-'89 '90-99 '00-09 10-19 '20-22 23-33 1.9% 2.5% 2.4% Exhibit 2B: Growth in private non-residential capital stock Non-residential fixed assets, year-over-year % change 2.0% 6% 5% 4% 1.5% 2022: 1.6% 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 14% 3% 2% 0.5% 1% 3.1% 2.5% 0.9% 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0% 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100-09 10-19 20-23° 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
World potential GDP benefit under net zero carbon emissions by 2050
(percent deviation from reference scenario)
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Net GDP benefit
Avoided chronic
damages
Sources: NGFS (2023), Scenarios Portal; IIASA (2023), NGFS Phase 4 Scenario Explorer;
and IMF staff calculations. Note: NIGEM model with REMIND-MAGPIE inputs. The
reference scenario is the Current Policies scenario with no transition but physical risk.
Avoided acute
damages
Mitigation policy
costs
IMF
Transcribed Image Text:World potential GDP benefit under net zero carbon emissions by 2050 (percent deviation from reference scenario) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Net GDP benefit Avoided chronic damages Sources: NGFS (2023), Scenarios Portal; IIASA (2023), NGFS Phase 4 Scenario Explorer; and IMF staff calculations. Note: NIGEM model with REMIND-MAGPIE inputs. The reference scenario is the Current Policies scenario with no transition but physical risk. Avoided acute damages Mitigation policy costs IMF
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