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- A. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.0Explain or define each of these terms:a. Laplace criterionb. Minimax regretc. Expected valued. Expected value of perfect information3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information
- Quarterly sales of PnP (in hundred million Rands) from 2000 to 2004 are given in the table below: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2000 5 6 8 9 2001 6 8 9 11 2002 10 9 12 10 2003 13 10 15 10 2004 14 16 15 14 What is the five period moving average for 2002_Q2 (round off to one decimals). A. 10.8 B. 10.4 C. 10.2 D. 10.06) Nicole has decided to go to school which costs her a total of P19,500 and give upi on a job that paid her P24,900 for the year. But instead, she can hope to earn P29,900 after she graduates. Nicole's opportunity cost amount to?a. P19,500 b. P24,900c. P29,900d. P5,000 7. Villanueva Enterprises reported the ff. information. What is the cost of goods manufactured in February?I. Jan. 2017 -job accumulated cost of P3,000ii. Feb. 2017 -the following costs were added to production: Job 1-P10,000 Job 2-P8,000Job 3-P7,000 III. Feb. 2017 Job 1 was completed and sold for P18,000 Job 2 was completed but not sold Job 3 remains in production b. P8,000c. P10,000 d. P13,000e. P21,000 8. Julie borrowed a certain amount from Diane on June 2016. Two years later, Julle i again borrowed P5,000. Julie decided to pay P1,000 on June 2019 and dischargei her balance by paying P7,500 on June 2021. What was the amount borrowed oni June 2016 if the interest rate is 8% compounded annually?a. P1,389.50 b.…3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the table below. Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electronic action Demand Light Moderate $250,000 $90,000 -$100,000 400,000 440,000 400,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 780,000 Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree. Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.
- Previous Problem Problem List Next Problem (1 point) Using diaries for many weeks, a study on the lifestyles of visually impaired students was conducted. The students kept track of many lifestyle variables including how many hours of sleep obtained on a typical day. Researchers found that visually impaired students averaged 9.2 hours of sleep, with a standard deviation of 2.24 hours. Assume that the number of hours of sleep for these visually impaired students is normally distributed. (a) What is the probability that a visually impaired student gets less than 6.4 hours of sleep? answer: (b) What is the probability that a visually impaired student gets between 6.2 and 8.84 hours of sleep? answer: (c) Thirty percent of students get less than how many hours of sleep on a typical day? answer: hours Note: You can earn partial credit on this problem. Preview My Answers Submit Answers You have attempted this problem 0 times. You have unlimited attempts remaining.D&R A3 3 - 2 Question 3. FRA Pricing, Valuation, Payoff, and Hedging Today is June 1. Sustainable Corporation has an obligation of $25 million coming due on August 1. The company is planning to borrow this amount on August 1 to fulfill its obligation, and plans to pay back the loan on December 1. The company’s borrowing rate is LIBOR + 125 basis points. The company’s bank presents it with the following LIBOR term structure: # days LIBOR 30 0.90% 60 1.00% 90 1.05% 120 1.10% 150 1.15% 180 1.18% 210 1.20% 240 1.21% For the calculation of interest, the bank assumes 30 days in a month, and 360 days in a year. Ms. Devro, the VP Finance of Sustainable, is worried that LIBOR will increase between June and August, thus increasing the company’s borrowing cost. She advises that the company enters into a forward rate agreement (FRA) with its bank to hedge its interest rate risk. She has asked you, the treasurer of the company, to…B-1. Which is more desirable assuming data are COST Decenaine the cousen dagram. 60 90 60 1/3 (45) 45 99 40 50 50 30 20 /2 40 50 B-2. A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium or large stamping plant. A consultant's report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and 0.80 that demand will be high. If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the Net Present Value (NPV) will be $42M. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the NPV of $42M or expand greatly for a Net Present Value of $48M. The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its NPV is estimated at $22M; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a NPV of $46M, or could expand and realize a NPV of $50M. If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the NPV will be ($20M), whereas high demand will result in a NPV of $72M. a) Analyze and solve this problem using a…
- Payoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings (at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 Bonanza(B) 0.1 $200 m SO 0.4 Conditional…