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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?
- The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?James and Maddie work for Statesboro Toolworks. Their boss Jenny tells them that she will promote the person who has the best possible forecast for the firm's DG5-S electric tool. Jenny emailed them the demand data from 10 days worth of sales and then asked each to create a forecast for the next 10 days. The table below shows (1) Actual Demand data (2nd Column), James forecast (3rd column), and Maddie's forecast (4th column). Calculate which of the two has the more accurate forecast. Who gets the promotion? The combatant's forecasts and the actual egg production are shown in the table. Which forecaster was more accurate and should be hired as a result of his performance on this trial? Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Forecast Forecast (James) (Maddie) 102 102 107 106 105 113 115 113 109 118 124 119 142 136 130 154 148 142 166 160 154 181 174 167 198 190 182 206 202 195 Actual Final solution: The person who gets the promotion will be: What is Maddie's MAPE?…The inventory level for a particular product is shown in the table below. Use the first 8 observations to investigate whether an additive or a multiplicative model is moresuitable for forecasting purposes. (The cyclical component is ignored here because the series istoo short). Using a moving average to represent the trend, what is then your forecast for 1999Quarter 4?
- Simple exponential smoothing with a 5 0.3 is being used to forecast sales of digital cameras at Lowland Appliance. Forecasts are made on a monthly basis. After August camera sales are observed, the forecast for September is 100 cameras. Suppose 120 cameras are sold in September. Use the basic equation for simple exponential smoothing to forecast October sales and November sales.Employing a 4 period moving average, forecast periods 5-8 and determine the forecast error (round 2 decimals)Use simple exponential smoothing with a -0.8 to forecast electric scooter sales at Guelph- Humber Inc. for July. Assume that the forecast for May was for 45 electric scooters. Round your answer to 1 decimal Electric Scooter Sales Month May 42 June 47 July 45 August 40 Weekly demand for medical masks for the last five weeks at Chopper Drug Store has been as follows: 92, 96, 100, 100 and 102 (listed from the oldest to most recent). Suppose a naive forecast was used to forecast demand. What would the MAD be for this situation? Enrollment in a particular Yoga class at Guelph Fitness Centre for the last five months has been 80, 86, 88, 88 and 90(listed from the oldest to most recent). Suppose a two-month mov average was used to forecast enrollment. What would the MSE be for this situation?