A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.40, 0.35, and 0.25, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $13,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $30,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $50,000 or to large size to earn $100,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $50,000 if demand is low and earn $100,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $125,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $175,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $180,000. If demand is average for the large facility, the present value is expected to be $80,000; if demand is low, the facility is expected to lose $70,000. Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that each payoff is given in thousands ($000). What should management do to achieve the highest expected pay off? The management should build a (small facility, medium facility, large facility) in order to achieve the highest expected payoffoff of $_____. (Enter your response as a whole number

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
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A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.40, 0.35, and 0.25, respectively. A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $13,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $30,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be expanded to medium size to earn $50,000 or to large size to earn $100,000. A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $50,000 if demand is low and earn $100,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $125,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $175,000. If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $180,000. If demand is average for the large facility, the present value is expected to be $80,000; if demand is low, the facility is expected to lose $70,000. Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that each payoff is given in thousands ($000). What should management do to achieve the highest expected pay off? The management should build a (small facility, medium facility, large facility) in order to achieve the highest expected payoffoff of $_____. (Enter your response as a whole number.)
Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that each payoff is given in thousands (S000)
OB.
OA.
Expand to g s175
High 0 25 s180
Avg 0.35 $80
High 0 25
Avg 0.35 s80
Low 0.40-S7O
Do nothing
$125
- $70
High 0 25 s180
Avg 0 35 s100
Low 0.40
Low 0.40
Expand to Irg s175
-$70
Large
Large
High 0 25
Avg 0.35 s100
Do nothing
$125
Expand to irg s100
Expand to mede50
-$50
Low 0 40
- $50
Expand to Irg
Expand to medeso
Do nothing
Expand to medean
Do nothing
$100
High 0 25
High 0.25
Do nothing
$25
Expand to mede
"$30
Do nothing
Small
Small
Avg 0 35
Low 0 40 513
$25
Avg 0.35
Low 0.40 $13
$30
-$13
$15
$15
OD.
OC.
High 0.40 5180
Avg 0.35 s80
High 0 25 s180
Avg 0 35 s80
Low 025
2029 570
Expand to g s175
Expand to Irg S175
Large
High 0.40
hledAvg 0.35 s100
Low 025 s50
Low 0.40
Large
-$70
Do nothing s125
High 0 25
hvedAvg 0.35 s100
Expand to Irg S100
$100
Expand to medg50
Do nothing
Do nothing
$125
Low 0.40
High 0.40
$50
Expand to Irg
s100
Expand to medg50
Small
High 0.25
$25
Expand to med
Avg 0.35
Low 0 25 513
Small
Do nothing
$25
Expand to meds30
Do nothing
$15
Avg 0.35
Low 0.40 $13
Do nothing
$15
What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff?
in order to achieve the highest expected payoff of S (Enter your response as a whole number)
The management should build a
Transcribed Image Text:Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that each payoff is given in thousands (S000) OB. OA. Expand to g s175 High 0 25 s180 Avg 0.35 $80 High 0 25 Avg 0.35 s80 Low 0.40-S7O Do nothing $125 - $70 High 0 25 s180 Avg 0 35 s100 Low 0.40 Low 0.40 Expand to Irg s175 -$70 Large Large High 0 25 Avg 0.35 s100 Do nothing $125 Expand to irg s100 Expand to mede50 -$50 Low 0 40 - $50 Expand to Irg Expand to medeso Do nothing Expand to medean Do nothing $100 High 0 25 High 0.25 Do nothing $25 Expand to mede "$30 Do nothing Small Small Avg 0 35 Low 0 40 513 $25 Avg 0.35 Low 0.40 $13 $30 -$13 $15 $15 OD. OC. High 0.40 5180 Avg 0.35 s80 High 0 25 s180 Avg 0 35 s80 Low 025 2029 570 Expand to g s175 Expand to Irg S175 Large High 0.40 hledAvg 0.35 s100 Low 025 s50 Low 0.40 Large -$70 Do nothing s125 High 0 25 hvedAvg 0.35 s100 Expand to Irg S100 $100 Expand to medg50 Do nothing Do nothing $125 Low 0.40 High 0.40 $50 Expand to Irg s100 Expand to medg50 Small High 0.25 $25 Expand to med Avg 0.35 Low 0 25 513 Small Do nothing $25 Expand to meds30 Do nothing $15 Avg 0.35 Low 0.40 $13 Do nothing $15 What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff? in order to achieve the highest expected payoff of S (Enter your response as a whole number) The management should build a
Amanager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilties being 0.40, 0.35, and 0 25, respectively
A small facility is expected to ean an after-tax net present value of just $13,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000, it can be increased to medium size to eam a net present value of $30,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be
expanded to medium size to eam $50,000 or to large size to eam $100,000.
A
A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $50,000 if demand is low and eam $100,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $125,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $175,000
If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $180,000. If demand is average for the large facility, the present value is expected to be $80,000; if demand is low, the facility is expected to lose S70,000.
Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that each payoff is given in thousands (S000).
O A
OB
.
High 0 25
Avg 0.35 580
Expand to g S175
Do nothing
High 0.25 s180
$125
Avg 0.35
$80
Low 0.40 -S70
Low 0.40
Expand to lrg S175
- $70
High 0 25 5180
MedAvg 0.35
Large
Large
High 0 25
Avg 0.35 $100
$100
Low 0.40
/Me
Do nothing
$125
Expand to Irg
$100
Expand to medeso
"$50
Low 0.40
-$50
-$50
Expand to Irg
S100
Expand to meds50
High 0.25
High 0.25
Do nothing
$25
Expand to mede30
Small
Small
Do nothing
$25
Expand to med
Avg 035
Low 0 40 s13
Do nothing
Avg 0 35
$13
$30
2415
Low 0 40
s1
Do nothing
$15
OD.
OC.
High 0.25 s180
Avg 0 35 s80
$80
Low 0.40
High 0 40 s180
Avg 0.35 s80
LOw 025 570
Expand to irg
s175
Large
Expand to ig $175
High 0 40
$70
Do nothing
MedAvg 0 35
s100
$125
Expand to g s100
Expand to medes0
Large
High 0 25
hted Avg 0.35 s100
Low 0.40
$100
Low 025 s50
$50
Do nothing
$125
High 0.40
"S50
$25
Expand to med
ean
$430
-$50
Expand to Irg
S100
Small
Do nothing
Expand to medg50
Do nothing
$25
Expand to meds30
High 0.25
Avg 0 35
Small
Next
Avg 0.35
1210 AM
33F Clear AODa C
2/2022
Transcribed Image Text:Amanager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium, or large facility. Demand can be low, average, or high, with the estimated probabilties being 0.40, 0.35, and 0 25, respectively A small facility is expected to ean an after-tax net present value of just $13,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $15,000, it can be increased to medium size to eam a net present value of $30,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $25,000 and can be expanded to medium size to eam $50,000 or to large size to eam $100,000. A A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $50,000 if demand is low and eam $100,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $125,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $175,000 If a large facility is built and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $180,000. If demand is average for the large facility, the present value is expected to be $80,000; if demand is low, the facility is expected to lose S70,000. Choose the correct decision tree below. Note that each payoff is given in thousands (S000). O A OB . High 0 25 Avg 0.35 580 Expand to g S175 Do nothing High 0.25 s180 $125 Avg 0.35 $80 Low 0.40 -S70 Low 0.40 Expand to lrg S175 - $70 High 0 25 5180 MedAvg 0.35 Large Large High 0 25 Avg 0.35 $100 $100 Low 0.40 /Me Do nothing $125 Expand to Irg $100 Expand to medeso "$50 Low 0.40 -$50 -$50 Expand to Irg S100 Expand to meds50 High 0.25 High 0.25 Do nothing $25 Expand to mede30 Small Small Do nothing $25 Expand to med Avg 035 Low 0 40 s13 Do nothing Avg 0 35 $13 $30 2415 Low 0 40 s1 Do nothing $15 OD. OC. High 0.25 s180 Avg 0 35 s80 $80 Low 0.40 High 0 40 s180 Avg 0.35 s80 LOw 025 570 Expand to irg s175 Large Expand to ig $175 High 0 40 $70 Do nothing MedAvg 0 35 s100 $125 Expand to g s100 Expand to medes0 Large High 0 25 hted Avg 0.35 s100 Low 0.40 $100 Low 025 s50 $50 Do nothing $125 High 0.40 "S50 $25 Expand to med ean $430 -$50 Expand to Irg S100 Small Do nothing Expand to medg50 Do nothing $25 Expand to meds30 High 0.25 Avg 0 35 Small Next Avg 0.35 1210 AM 33F Clear AODa C 2/2022
Expert Solution
Step 1: Correct Decision tree

Option (A): It contains all the nodes with decision nodes. Hence, option (A) is incorrect.

Option (B): Large facility cannot be expanded further. Hence, option (B) is incorrect.

Option (D): This decision tree does not shoe loss as a negative number. Hence, option(D) is incorrect.

Option (C): This decision tree is correct as it shows the chance node wherever applicable and shows loss wherever applicable.

Answer: Option (C)

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