A company has observed the following demand during the past 10 months for one of its popular products. In Excel Month         Demand 1                   60 2                   80 3                   40 4                   80 5                   120 6                   70 7                   110 8                   120 9                   80 10                  100 a Plot these data on a graph. Do you observe any pattern such as trend, seasonal, cyclical, or random variations in the data? b Compute 3-month moving average forecasts from Month 4 to 11. Plot the forecast in the same graph that you generated in part a. c Compute forecasts from Months 4 to 11 using exponential smoothing. Assume that F4 = 80 and α = 0.2. Plot these forecasts on the same graph that you generated in part b. d Compare the forecasts that you generated using MAD. Which seems to be the superior forecasting technique?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 28P: The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present...
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A company has observed the following demand during the past 10 months for
one of its popular products. In Excel
Month         Demand
1                   60
2                   80
3                   40
4                   80
5                   120
6                   70
7                   110
8                   120
9                   80
10                  100

a Plot these data on a graph. Do you observe any pattern such as
trend, seasonal, cyclical, or random variations in the data?

b Compute 3-month moving average forecasts from Month 4 to 11.
Plot the forecast in the same graph that you generated in part a.

c Compute forecasts from Months 4 to 11 using exponential
smoothing. Assume that F4 = 80 and α = 0.2. Plot these forecasts on the same
graph that you generated in part b.

d Compare the forecasts that you generated using MAD. Which
seems to be the superior forecasting technique?

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