problem number 2/a,b,and cNo handwritten solution plz stChapter 13 Decision Analysis2. Suppose that a decision maker faced with four decision alternatives and fournature develops the following profit payoff table:Decision AlternativeC.did₂dydaPlant SizeSmallLargeS11411Low1505098DealerHepburn HondaMidtown MotorsHopkins AutomotiveState of Nature829101010a. If the decision maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the four states of naturewhat is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative, and minimaregret approaches?b. Which approach do you prefer? Explain. Is establishing the most appropriate apAssume that the payoff table provides cost rather than profit payoffs. What is theproach before analyzing the problem important for the decision maker? Explain.recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative, and minimax regret approaches!3. Southland Corporation's decision to produce a new line of recreational products resultedin the need to construct either a small plant or a large plant. The best selection of plant sizedepends on how the marketplace reacts to the new product line. To conduct an analysis,marketing management has decided to view the possible long-run demand as low, medium, or high. The following payoff table shows the projected profit in millions of dollarsMonthly Cost$299$310$3251081011Long-Run DemandMedium200200"S711Mileage Allowance36,00045,00054,000a.What is the decision to be made, and what is the chance event for Southland's problem?b. Construct an influence diagram.c. Construct a decision tree.d. Recommend a decision based on the use of the optimistic, conservative, and minimaxregret approaches.134. Amy Lloyd is interested in leasing a new Honda and has contacted three automobile deal-ers for pricing information. Each dealer offered Amy a closed-end 36-month lease withno down payment due at the time of signing. Each lease includes a monthly charge and amileage allowance. Additional miles receive a surcharge on a per-mile basis. The monthlylease cost, the mileage allowance, and the cost for additional miles follow:High200500Cost perAdditional Mile$0.15$0.20$0.15Amy decided to choose the lease option that will minimize her total 36-month cost. The di

Th Payoff Table is given below:States of nature…

Answered: 3. 2. Suppose that a decision maker…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.4: The Precision Tree Add-in

Problem 9P

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Supposed that a decision-maker faced with four decision alternatives and four states of nature develops the following profit payoff table.1. If the decision-maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the four states of nature, what is the recommended decision using the MAXIMAX criterion?2. What decision alternative will he choose if using the MAXIMIN criterion?3. What about MINIMAX REGRET CRITERION?4. What decision would he make if using the criterion of realism at alpha 0.6 is used?
Given the following payoff table with the profits ($m), a firm might expect alternative investments (A, B, C) under different levels of interest rate. payoffs as profits states of nature 1(5%) decision 2(7%) 3(9%) alternatives A 14 22 6. B 19 18 11 12 17 15 (a) Which alternative should the firm choose under the maximax criterion? (b) Which option should the firm choose under the maximin criterion? (c) Which option should the firm choose under the LaPlace criterion? (d) Which option should the firm choose with the Hurwicz criterion with a = 0.2? (e) Using a minimax regret approach, what alternative should the firm choose? (f) Economists have assigned probabilities of 0.35, 0.3, and 0.35 to the possible interest levels 1, 2, and 3 respectively. Using expected monetary values, what option should be chosen and what is that optimal expected value? (g) What is the most that the firm should be willing to pay for additional information? Use Expected Regre (h) Use the alternative method to…
Your company must decide whether to introduce a new product. The sales of the product will be either at a high (success) or low (failure) level. The conditional value for this decision is as follows Decision High Low Introduce $4,000,000 -$2,000,000 Do Not Introduce 0 0 Probability 0.3 0.7 You have the option to conduct a market survey to sharpen you market demand estimate. The survey costs $200,000. The survey provides incomplete information about the sales, with three possible outcomes: (1) predicts high sales, (2) predicts low sales, or (3) inconclusive. Such surveys have in the past provided these results Result High Low Predicts High 0.4 0.1 Inconclusive 0.4 0.5 Predicts Low 0.2 0.4 c) Draw the complete decision tree, including the survey option. Explain where the values on the decision tree come from
Answer A.2 a-e a-c is in the picture here is d and e d) What is the qually likely decision? e) Develop a decision tree. Assume each outcome is equally likely, then find the highest EMV.
Assume that alternatives A, B,C, D are considered. Alternative C is better than each of the other 3 alternatives in all the 10 attributes considered, except one, but this one C is by far the worst. Which of the decision making models below would be the mostly likely to result in aliminating alternative C? a) addictive weighting b) dominance c) satisficing d) disjunctive resolution
Government officials must decide how to reduce the amount of Magentum being adulterated in the future. According to Becker, which of the following are options that could get the same expected cost of crime commission? 1 - Increase the probability of detection and conviction and combine that with a low sanction. 2 - Change the opportunity cost of the crime. 3 - Keep a low risk of probability of detection and conviction but impose a very high sanction. 1 and 3 1, 2, 3 1 and 2 2 and 3
Wired & Plugged specializes in manufacturing modern electronic components. It also builds equipment that produces the components. The marketing and production directors advised the president about a proposed manufacturing facility in the form of a payoff table as shown. Decision Profits($) Strong Marked Fair Market Poor Market Large-sized facility Medium-sized facility Small- sized facility No facility 450,000 2500,000 350,000 0 220,000 150,000 150,000 0 -310,000 -250,000 -80,000 0 What decision should be made using the LaPlace criterion?
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.
05) what do you understand by rational decision making? How and what accepts will and should be used while reaching a decision? Part II) What is bounded reality decision? Why is bounded reality important and how can it be used to achieve a good result in achieving a rationally bounded reality? Part III) what are rational decision making steps understood by you explain all 7 in your own words? ch f10 Inum Ik $ 8 ( % & 3 ( 4 6 7 8 E R 6 P |困
Choose the letter of the correct answer on each questions being asked for each case 1. If the decision maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the four states of nature, what is the recommended decision using MAXIMAX CRITERION? D1 D2 D3 D4 2. What decision alternative will he choose if using MAXIMIN CRITERION? D1 D2 D3 D4 3. What about MINIMAX REGRET CRITERION? D1 D2 D3 D4 4. What decision would he make if using criterion of realism at alpha 0.6 is used? D1 D2 D3 D4
. Define the uncertain variable cells?
Assume that the payoff table provides cost rather than profit payoffs. What isthe recommended decision using:i. the optimistic approachii. the conservative approachiii. the minimax regret approachiv. the Laplace method

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