17. An electronic missile guidance system consists of the following components: Components A, B, C, and D have reliabilities of 0.96, 0.98, 0.90, and 0.99, respectively. What is the reliability of the entire system?
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- Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop computers. The prices for the chip during the last 12 months were as follows: Month January February March April May June Price Per Chip $1.90 $1.61 $1.60 $1.85 $1.90 $1.95 Month Mar Apr May Forecast $1.76 1.61 1.73 Month July August Jun 1.88 September October November December This exercise contains only parts a, b, and c. a) Using a 2-month moving average, the forecast for periods 11 and 12 is (round your responses to two decimal places): Price Per Chip $2.00 $1.85 $1.70 $1.55 $1.50 $1.75 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1.93 1.98 1.93 1.78Theme Park (5S-7A) The lease of Theme Park, Inc., is about to expire. Management must decide whether to Renew the lease for another 10 years or to Relocate near the site of a proposed new motel. The town planning board is currently debating the merits of granting approval to the motel. A consultant has estimated the net present value of Theme Park's two alternatives under each state of nature as shown below. Suppose that the management of Theme Park, Inc., has decided that there is a 0.20 probability that the motel's application will be approved. Options Renew Relocate Alternative Renew Relocate Motel Approved a-1. If management uses maximum expected monetary value as the decision criterion, calculate expected monetary value for the alternatives "Renew" and "Relocate"! $ 400,000 2,000,000 O Renew O Relocate Motel Rejected $4,000,000 100,000 Expected Value a-2. Which alternative should it choose? b. If management has been offered the option of a temporary lease while the town planning…31. among the following variances. which of them does not need a corrective action? a. 200,000 b. 50,000 c. -750,000 d. 0
- c. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000S9. A Co-operative bank QLB grants loansunder the following conditions. -(a) If customer has an account witbank and has no loan outstandingwill be granted.(b) If customer has an account with thebank but some amount is outstandingfrom previous loan, then loan will begranted if special arrangementapproval is obtained.(c) Reject loan applications in all other cases. Draw Decision Tree and Table for the bank . This under System Analysis and Design.What is it to say that it can lead to better contact between managers for successful variance analysis?
- 11. Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of pastries. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or a minor renovation of its current plant. Bill Wicker, head of operations, has developed the following conditional values table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Major renovation $100,000 -$90,000Minor renovation $40,000 -$20,000 Do nothing $0 $0 Assume that the probability of a favorable market is equal to the probability of an unfavorable market.Part 2a) Choose the appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities.A.MinorFavorable40,000Unfavorable-20,000UnfavorableFavorableMajor100,000-90,000Do…Sun TV sells TV sets. It does not sell smart TVs so customers do not come to Sun TV if they want to purchase smart TVs. Sun TV wants to start selling smart TVs and will only sell smart TVs to customers to whom they advertise. Managers use customer information (income level, previous purchase history) to decide which customers they should target. The team needs to decide how sure it must be in predicting customer interest in a smart TV. If it is too cautious, it will choose a very high cutoff probability and only market to customers who it believes are very likely to be in the market for a smart TV. This may cause them to miss out on many customers. If they are too aggressive and choose a low cutoff probability, they may identify more individuals interested in buying smart TVs but also end up wasting marketing dollars on customers who are not interested in purchasing smart TVs. To choose a cutoff probability, the team develops the confusion matrices below for two cutoff probabilities on…Problem 1) The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a new fertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful, then the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful, the company will lose $50,000. In that past, similar products have been successful 55% of the time. At a cost of $10,000, the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If the test result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable, there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test result and a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. a) Construct a decision tree to determine Nitro's optimal strategy b) Find the EVSI and EVPI Note I need solution of part A only
- Problem 1) The Nitro Fertilizer Company is developing a new fertilizer. If Nitro markets the product and it is successful, then the company will earn a $50,000 profit; if it is unsuccessful, the company will lose $50,000. In that past, similar products have been successful 55% of the time. At a cost of $10,000, the effectiveness of the new fertilizer can be tested. If the test result is favorable, there is an 80% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. If the test result is unfavorable, there is only a 30% chance that the fertilizer will be successful. There is a 60% chance of a favorable test result and a 40% chance of an unfavorable test result. a) Construct a decision tree to determine Nitro's optimal strategy b) Find the EVSI and EVPI I need solution of part (b) only1. What is the most the real estate investor would be willing to pay for additional information? Use Minimum Expected Regret (Minimum EOL) 2. Use the alternative method to verify EVPI1. Construct a risk analysis that examines the various forms of risk (technical, commercial, financial etc) related to the creation of this office building 2.Explain how the analysis would change if office space were in high demand