Where you invest your money? Construct a decision tree.
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Suppose that you want to invest $10,000 in the stock market by buying shares in one of two companies: A and B. Shares in company A though risky, could yield a 50%
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- It is January 1 of year 0, and Merck is trying to determine whether to continue development of a new drug. The following information is relevant. You can assume that all cash flows occur at the ends of the respective years. Clinical trials (the trials where the drug is tested on humans) are equally likely to be completed in year 1 or 2. There is an 80% chance that clinical trials will succeed. If these trials fail, the FDA will not allow the drug to be marketed. The cost of clinical trials is assumed to follow a triangular distribution with best case 100 million, most likely case 150 million, and worst case 250 million. Clinical trial costs are incurred at the end of the year clinical trials are completed. If clinical trials succeed, the drug will be sold for five years, earning a profit of 6 per unit sold. If clinical trials succeed, a plant will be built during the same year trials are completed. The cost of the plant is assumed to follow a triangular distribution with best case 1 billion, most likely case 1.5 billion, and worst case 2.5 billion. The plant cost will be depreciated on a straight-line basis during the five years of sales. Sales begin the year after successful clinical trials. Of course, if the clinical trials fail, there are no sales. During the first year of sales, Merck believe sales will be between 100 million and 200 million units. Sales of 140 million units are assumed to be three times as likely as sales of 120 million units, and sales of 160 million units are assumed to be twice as likely as sales of 120 million units. Merck assumes that for years 2 to 5 that the drug is on the market, the growth rate will be the same each year. The annual growth in sales will be between 5% and 15%. There is a 25% chance that the annual growth will be 7% or less, a 50% chance that it will be 9% or less, and a 75% chance that it will be 12% or less. Cash flows are discounted 15% per year, and the tax rate is 40%. Use simulation to model Mercks situation. Based on the simulation output, would you recommend that Merck continue developing? Explain your reasoning. What are the three key drivers of the projects NPV? (Hint: The way the uncertainty about the first year sales is stated suggests using the General distribution, implemented with the RISKGENERAL function. Similarly, the way the uncertainty about the annual growth rate is stated suggests using the Cumul distribution, implemented with the RISKCUMUL function. Look these functions up in @RISKs online help.)A project does not necessarily have a unique IRR. (Refer to the previous problem for more information on IRR.) Show that a project with the following cash flows has two IRRs: year 1, 20; year 2, 82; year 3, 60; year 4, 2. (Note: It can be shown that if the cash flow of a project changes sign only once, the project is guaranteed to have a unique IRR.)In the financial world, there are many types of complex instruments called derivatives that derive their value from the value of an underlying asset. Consider the following simple derivative. A stocks current price is 80 per share. You purchase a derivative whose value to you becomes known a month from now. Specifically, let P be the price of the stock in a month. If P is between 75 and 85, the derivative is worth nothing to you. If P is less than 75, the derivative results in a loss of 100(75-P) dollars to you. (The factor of 100 is because many derivatives involve 100 shares.) If P is greater than 85, the derivative results in a gain of 100(P-85) dollars to you. Assume that the distribution of the change in the stock price from now to a month from now is normally distributed with mean 1 and standard deviation 8. Let EMV be the expected gain/loss from this derivative. It is a weighted average of all the possible losses and gains, weighted by their likelihoods. (Of course, any loss should be expressed as a negative number. For example, a loss of 1500 should be expressed as -1500.) Unfortunately, this is a difficult probability calculation, but EMV can be estimated by an @RISK simulation. Perform this simulation with at least 1000 iterations. What is your best estimate of EMV?
- You have your choice of two investment accounts.Investment A is a 15-year annuity that features end-of-month $1,500 paymentsand has an interest rate of 8.7 percent compounded monthly. Investment B is an8 percent continuously compounded lump-sum investment, also good for 15 years.How much money would you need to invest in B today for it to be worth as much asInvestment A 15 years from now?Scenario Your corporation has just approved an 8-year expansion plan to grow its market share. The plan requires an influx of cash in each of the 8 years. Management wants to develop a financial plan to ensure the cash needed for the expansion will be available at the beginning of each of the 8 years. The corporation has the following investment options: Security Price per unit Return Rate (%) Years to Maturity 1 $1,200 10.255 5 2 $1,000 6.7550 6 3 $1,175 12.110 7 Savings Account 5.500 Each unit of security 1, 2, and 3 guarantees to pay $1,000 at maturity. Investments in these securities must take place only at the beginning of year 1 and will be held until maturity. Any funds not invested in securities will be invested in a savings account that pays the annual interest rates noted above. The following table summarizes the cash needs for the expansion plan for each of the 8 years: Year 1 = $250,000 Year 5 = $295,000…On Monday, a certain stock closed at $10 per share. Before the stock market opens on Tuesday, you expect the stock to close at $9, $10, or $11 per share, with respective probabilities 0.3, 0.3, and 0.4. Looking ahead to Wednesday, you expect the stock to close 10 percent lower, unchanged, or 10 percent higher than Tuesday’s close, with the following probabilities. Tuesday's Close 10 Percent Lower Unchanged 10 Percent Higher $9 0.4 0.3 0.3 10 0.2 0.2 0.6 11 0.1 0.2 0.7 Early on Tuesday, you are directed to buy 100 shares of the stock before Thursday. All purchases are made at the end of the day, at the known closing price for that day, so your only options are to buy at the end of Tuesday or at the end of Wednesday. You wish to determine the optimal strategy for whether to buy on Tuesday or defer the purchase until Wednesday, given the Tuesday closing price, to minimize the expected purchase price. Develop and evaluate a decision tree. a-1. Determine the optimal…
- uestion The company's bank won't lend it any more money than it already has, and investment bankers have said that debentures are out of the question. The treasurer has asked you to do some research and suggest a few ways in which bonds might be made attractive enough to allow the company to borrow. Explain how to secure the bonds with owned assets in great detial. In what ways does it make the bonds more attractive to allow the company to borrow?You currently own 600 shares of JKL, Inc. JKL is an all-equity firm that has 75,000 shares of stock outstanding at a market price of $40 a share. The company’s earnings before interest and taxes are $140,000. JKL has decided to issue $1 million of debt at 8 percent interest. This debt will be used to repurchase shares of stock. If the cost of equity is 25%, the WACC is 16% and cost of debt is 10%, what will be the implied D/E ratio?Please answer along with the excel formulas - 1. Sue now has $125. How much would she have after 8 years if she leaves it invested at 8.5% with annual compounding? $205.83 $216.67 $228.07 $240.08 $252.08 2. Suppose you have $1,500 and plan to purchase a 5-year certificate of deposit (CD) that pays 3.5% interest, compounded annually. How much will you have when the CD matures? $1,781.53 $1,870.61 $1,964.14 $2,062.34 $2,165.46 3. Last year Rocco Corporation's sales were $225 million. If sales grow at 6% per year, how large (in millions) will they be 5 years later? $271.74 $286.05 $301.10 $316.16 $331.96
- The process of evaluating risk to make certain that the risk cost coverage is adequate to reduce the exposure to risk, is referred to as? Select one: a. Liquidity coverage b. Underwriting c. Risk poolingI have a accounting firm and someone from real estate wants to invest and give my firm all her accounts but in return wants equal ownership of my firm, but i dont want to giver her equal ownership but wants her to invest in my firm , what are alternatives that i can offer her without giving her half ownership. ElaborateConsider two equity market investors. The first investor is a hedge fund manager that relies on very active trading, and borrows from investment banks in order to leverage their investment. Their remuneration depends on total base fee earned by their fund as a percentage of net assets under management, plus a yearly bonus based on returns generated above a hurdle rate. The second investor is a high net-worth individual who is investing for their own retirement, which they anticipate to occur in 10 years or more. Identify three dimensions of risk that are likely to have significantly different impact on thesetwo investors. Explain the nature of the difference. Suggest aspects that each investor might monitor in order to control the risks most relevant to them.