Using the Quarterly Sales Data, Assume there is no trend & Compute the four seasonal index values. Further, with a forecasted total demand for year 5 of 997 determine the seasonally adjusted forecast for each of the four quarters of year 5. (Round all answers to 4 decimal places) Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1 218 226 232 239 2 244 253 260 273 3 199 206 216 225 4 258 268 229 237

Using the Quarterly Sales Data, Assume there is no trend & Compute the four seasonal index values. Further, with a forecasted total demand for year 5 of 997 determine the seasonally adjusted forecast for each of the four quarters of year 5. (Round all answers to 4 decimal places) Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1 218 226 232 239 2 244 253 260 273 3 199 206 216 225 4 258 268 229 237

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models

Problem 29P: The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building...

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The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
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