To win a game, Roger needs to score 2,000 points. So far, he has scored 837 points. How many more points does Roger need to score?
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- Q1. The management of an oil company is trying to decide whether to drill for oil in a particular fieldin the Gulf of Mexico. It costs the company $600 thousand to drill in the selected field. Themanagement believes that if oil is found in this field, its estimated value will be $3400 thousand. Atpresent, this oil company believes that there is a 45% chance that the selected field actually containsoil. Before drilling, the oil company can hire a team of geologists to perform seismographic tests at acost of $55 thousand. Based on similar tests in other fields, the tests have a 25% false negative rate(no oil predicted when oil is present) and a 15% false positive rate (oil predicted when no oil ispresent).A. Assume the oil company wants to maximize its expected net earnings. Please utilize decisiontree analysis to determine its optimal strategy.B. Calculate the expected value of the information (EVI/EVSI) provided by the team ofgeologists.C. Conduct a sensitivity analysis on the chance…In this version of dice blackjack, you toss a single die repeatedly and add up the sum of your dice tosses. Your goal is to come as close as possible to a total of 7 without going over. You may stop at any time. If your total is 8 or more, you lose. If your total is 7 or less, the house then tosses the die repeatedly. The house stops as soon as its total is 4 or more. If the house totals 8 or more, you win. Otherwise, the higher total wins. If there is a tie, the house wins. Consider the following strategies: Keep tossing until your total is 3 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 5 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 6 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 7 or more. For example, suppose you keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Here are some examples of how the game might go: You toss a 2 and then a 3 and stop for total of 5. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You lose because a tie goes to the house. You toss a 3 and then a 6. You lose. You toss a 6 and stop. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You win. You toss a 3 and then a 4 for total of 7. The house tosses a 3 and then a 5. You win. Note that only 4 tosses need to be generated for the house, but more tosses might need to be generated for you, depending on your strategy. Develop a simulation and run it for at least 1000 iterations for each of the strategies listed previously. For each strategy, what are the two values so that you are 95% sure that your probability of winning is between these two values? Which of the five strategies appears to be best?4. "Family Man," a construction company, is considering whether to bid on a contract for a new housing complex. The cost of preparing a bid USD 200,000. “Family Man" has a 0.8 probability of winning the contract, if it submits the bid. If "Family Man" wins the bid, it has to pay USD 2000,000 to be a project partner of the project. As per the usual practice, "Family Man" will then consider consulting a market research firm "Marquess" to conduct a market survey to forecast the demand of housing complex before beginning the construction. "Marquess" charges a fee of USD 150,000. Now, the demand scenario can be either "High demand" or "Low demand." "Family Man" gets a revenue of USD 5000,000 and USD 3000,000 in case of "High demand" and "Low demand" scenario, respectively. On the other hand, instead of construction, "Family Man" has a provision of selling its project rights to another project partner construction company at the price USD 3500,000. As per the historical data, "Marquess"…
- 009. from: small and medium. There are two flavors to choose from: chocolate and strawberry. There are two toppings to choose from: cherries and nuts. The tree diagram below shows the possible outcomes. Use the diagram to answer the questions. Size small medium Flavor chocolate strawberry chocolate strawberry (a) How many outcomes are there? 8 outcome(s) Topping cherries nuts cherries nuts cherries nuts cherries nuts Outcome (small, chocolate, cherries) (small, chocolate, nuts) (small, strawberry, cherries) (small, strawberry, nuts) (medium, chocolate, cherries) (medium, chocolate, nuts) (medium, strawberry, cherries) (medium, strawberry, nuts) (b) How many outcomes do not have chocolate ice cream being chosen? outcome(s) (c) How many outcomes have both strawberry ice cream and cherries being chosen? outcome(s)2. Let U(w) denote the utility function for an investor. (a) If the investor is non-satiated, what property must U(w) have? (b) If the investor is risk-neutral, what property must U(w) have? (c) Let X be a fair gamble. Suppose that an investor is risk-seeking. What would the investor prefer between X and the empty portfolio (i.e. making no investment)?Q1: Fill the blanks ( 1. The programming in optimization means... 2. For any MP problem, we need to follow a specific procedure, starting with .... 6 3. For the feasible region shown in the figure and from what you studied so far, the MP problem is..... because..... 4. If you decided to invest in either investment 3, or in investment 4, but not both and you have to use binary integer variables, then the constraint to add is .... 4 2 2 4 6. 5. For the previous question, if its not allowed to use binary variables for investment 3 and investment 3, then we need add....
- If a game larger than 2 X 2 requires a mixed strategy, we attempt to reduce the size of the game by A looking for identifying saddle points B looking for inverting the payoff matrix looking for dominated strategies (D) looking for nothingQ1) Ahmed's interest was cricket. When he finished university, he wanted to work in a management job. He wanted to do his research project on some aspect of general management and social sciences, preferably for a sports goods manufacturer but had no research idea. He asked five friends, all taking business education degrees, to help him brainstorm the problem. You are requested to use the following problem-solving techniques to generate and refine the research idea in this business scenario. i) The technique of Brainstormingii) The Delphi technique3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information
- Assume that the payoff table provides cost rather than profit payoffs. What isthe recommended decision using:i. the optimistic approachii. the conservative approachiii. the minimax regret approachiv. the Laplace method1. Consider the following normal form game. a. Does either player have a dominant strategy? Explain. & Does either player have a dominated strategy? If so, identify them. c. Now consider iterative elimination of dominated strategies. Proceed as far as you can in this fashion to predict what outcomes we might observe when rational players play this game W Y 2. 2.1 7,3 2, 12 4,4 9.0 3.5 6, 8 1.3 B. 8.7 0,2 4.0 3,10 -1,4 0.-1 4,1 1,8 D.Abdullah is looking to invest for the next three years. He is looking to invest OMR 7500 today in a bank CD that will earn interest at 5.75 percent annually. How much will he have at the end of three years? Select one: O a. 8681 OMR b. 8870 OMR O c. 8000 OMR O d. None of these