The occurrence of floods in a county follows a Poisson distribution with a return period of 20 years. The damage in each flood is log-normally distributed with a mean of $2 million and a coefficient of variation of 25%. Assume that damage in any one flood is statistically independent of the damage in any other flood. (a) What is the probability of more than two floods occurring in the county during the next 10 years? (b) What is the probability that damage in the next flood will exceed $3 million? (c) What is the probability than none of the floods that could occur in the next 10 years will cause damage exceeding $3 million?

Calculus For The Life Sciences
2nd Edition
ISBN:9780321964038
Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Chapter13: Probability And Calculus
Section13.3: Special Probability Density Functions
Problem 42E
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The occurrence of floods in a county follows a Poisson distribution with a return
period of 20 years. The damage in each flood is log-normally distributed with a mean
of $2 million and a coefficient of variation of 25%. Assume that damage in any one
flood is statistically independent of the damage in any other flood.

(a) What is the probability of more than two floods occurring in the county during the next 10 years?

(b) What is the probability that damage in the next flood will exceed $3 million?

(c)
What is the probability than none of the floods that could occur in the next 10 years
will cause damage exceeding $3 million?

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