Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index are 7.36, 7.41, 7.56, 7.57, 7.61, 7.53, 7.53, 7.71, 7.63, and 7.56. (a) Construct a time series plot. O Index Index 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Week 1 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 2 66 Week 0 1 2 3 What type of pattern exists in the data? O The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. The data appear to follow a trend pattern. The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. Time Series Value 4 7.36 567 8 9 10 11 Week 7.41 a = 0.1 Forecast Index a = 0.3 Forecast Index (b) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a relatively small MSE. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) 8.5 8.3 a=0.8 Forecast 8.1 7.9 7.7- 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7- 6.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Week 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7- 7.5- 7.3 7.1- 6.9 6.7 6.5 01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Week
Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index are 7.36, 7.41, 7.56, 7.57, 7.61, 7.53, 7.53, 7.71, 7.63, and 7.56. (a) Construct a time series plot. O Index Index 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Week 1 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 2 66 Week 0 1 2 3 What type of pattern exists in the data? O The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. The data appear to follow a trend pattern. The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. Time Series Value 4 7.36 567 8 9 10 11 Week 7.41 a = 0.1 Forecast Index a = 0.3 Forecast Index (b) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that results in a relatively small MSE. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) 8.5 8.3 a=0.8 Forecast 8.1 7.9 7.7- 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7- 6.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Week 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7- 7.5- 7.3 7.1- 6.9 6.7 6.5 01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Week
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 27P: The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living...
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