Suppose there is a 75% chance of rain tomorrow. You are offered a "contract" that will pay you $1 if it rains tomorrow and $0 if it doesn't. Question 4 What is the expected (average) value of the contract's payout in dollars?
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- Economics Shawn's consumption is subject to risk. With probability 0.75 he will enjoy 10000 in consumption, but with probability 0.25 he will have only 3600. His utility function for consumption is given by v(c) = Vc. -What is the expected value of Shawn's consumption? -What is his expected utility? -What is his certainty equivalent of having 10000 with probability 0.75 and 3600 with probability 0.25?Utility Theory You live in an area that has a possibility of incurring a massive earthquake, so you are considering buyingearthquake insurance on your home at an annual cost of $180. The probability of an earthquake damagingyour home during one year is 0.001. If this happens, you estimate that the cost of the damage (fully coveredby earthquake insurance) will be $160,000. Your total assets (including your home) are worth $250,000. A. Apply Bayes’ decision rule to determine which alternative (take the insurance or not) maximizes yourexpected assets after one year.12. Over the last decade, robotic-drone a research and development company has researched in new drone technology for home delivery. Their sales department considers that they could sell as many as $90 million per year with a probability of 20%. With a most likely value of $76 million with a probability of 45% and a lowest value of $50 million. a. Determine the expected value of their sales. b. The sales department estimates that they could maintain this sales rhythm for 4 years with a probability of 67% or that this sales rhythm could be maintained for 8 years. Determine the Expected Value for the PW if the company considers a yearly interest rate of 10%
- Suppose Grace and Lisa are to go to dinner. Lisa is visiting Grace from outof town, and they are to meet at a local restaurant. When Lisa lived in town,they had two favorite restaurants: Bel Loc Diner and the Corner Stable. Ofcourse, Lisa’s information is out of date, but Grace knows which is betterthese days. Assume that the probability that the Bel Loc Diner is better isp > 1/2 and the probability that the Corner Stable is better is 1 - p. Naturedetermines which restaurant Grace thinks is better. Grace then sends amessage to Lisa, either “Let’s go to the Bel Loc Diner,” “Let’s go to theCorner Stable,” or “I don’t know [which is better].” Lisa receives the message, and then Grace and Lisa simultaneously decide which restaurant to go to. Payoffs are such that Grace and Lisa want to go to the same restaurant, but they prefer it to be the one that Grace thinks is better. More specifically, if, in fact, the Bel Loc Diner is better, then the payoffs from theiractions are as shown in the…15. A city mayor decides to construct a new bridge over the major river in the town. The estimated life of such a structure will be 20 years. There is a 70% probability that the total initial costs (consulting fees and construction) will be $800,000 and a 30% probability that such costs would be $1 million. There is 100% probability that the maintenance costs would be $30,000 every 5 years. How much money should the city borrow now in order to carry out the entire project including maintenance? The interest rate is 5%.A new company is offering its shares for sale in an initial public offering (IPO) through an auction. There is a 50% probability that the company will be very successful, in which case each share is worth $28. Otherwise, each share is worth $0. You are competing with professional investors such as hedge funds that know if the company will be successful or not. Part 1If you bid $14 per share, what is your expected return?
- Sam, after taking a $200 loan from the bank to finance an investment that pays $1000 50% of the time and $0 50% of the time at a 100% interest, discovers another riskier investment that pays out $5,000 but only 10% of the time, while the other 90% of the time it pays zero. Would the he want to switch to the riskier investment? Question 4 options: Yes because his return has increased No because his liability to the bank has increased No because his return has decreased None of the above2. Alex plays football for a local club in Kumasi. If he does not suffer any injury b y the end of the season, he will get a professional contract with Kotoko, which is worth $10,000. If he is injured though, he will get a contract as a fitness coa ch worth $100. The probability of the injury is 10%. Describe the lottery What is the expected value of this lottery? What is the expected utility of this lottery if u(x) = √X Assume he could buy insurance at price P that could pay $9,900 in case of inj ury. What is the highest value of P that makes it worthwhile for Alex to purcha se insurance? What is the certainty equivalence for this lottery?Tasha is planning to invest in a farming project in 2022, but has a reservation given the different forecast (declined (D),the average (A) and takeoff (T)of the economy. She uses the following to guide her decision making. (i) there is 25% chance she will invest if there is a forecast of declined (ii) there is a 75% chance she will invest if there is a forecast of average growth and (iii) there is a 55% chance of investing if there is a forecast that economy will takeoff. Tashanna believes that for 2022 there is a 20% chance of decline and a 40% chance of average growth and a 40% chance the economy will take off. Based on these probabilities what is the chance that Tattiana will invest in the farming project if the stated forecast hold?
- In the final round of a TV game show, contestantshave a chance to increase their current winnings of$1 million to $2 million. If they are wrong, theirprize is decreased to $500,000. A contestant thinkshis guess will be right 50% of the time. Should heplay? What is the lowest probability of a correctguess that would make playing profitable?Hello can any one help with this Economics question: A contractor spends Dollar 3,000 to prepare for a bid on a construction project which, after deducting manufacturing expenses and the cost of bidding, will yield a profit of dollar 25,000 if the bid is won. If the chance of winning the bid is ten per cent, compute his expected profit and state the likely decision on whether to bid or not to bid?In a final round of a MegaMillion TV show, a contestant has won $1 millionand has a chance of doubling the reward. If he loses his winnings drop to$500,000. The contestant thinks his chances of winning are 50%. Should heplay? What is the lowest probability of a correct guess that will make his betprofitable? Show work