Suppose Don's wants to invest to build a condominium tower in Moscow. If he can get his friend Vlad to buy one of the units, he figures the investment will be a success (because all Vlaď's rich friends will want to buy one too) and his income will be $1,000,000 this year. However, there is a 60% chance that Vlad will not be interested. In that case, the investment will fail and Don's income will be only $100,000. Don's utility function is U=In(income) The British insurance company Lloyds of London will insure the investment and they will charge him a premium of $600,000. Graph the risk situation described above. Note the expected utility. What would be the actuarially fair premium for a policy that would pay Don $900,000 in the event the investment fails? а. b с. What is Don's Risk Premium?
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- Suppose Grace and Lisa are to go to dinner. Lisa is visiting Grace from outof town, and they are to meet at a local restaurant. When Lisa lived in town,they had two favorite restaurants: Bel Loc Diner and the Corner Stable. Ofcourse, Lisa’s information is out of date, but Grace knows which is betterthese days. Assume that the probability that the Bel Loc Diner is better isp > 1/2 and the probability that the Corner Stable is better is 1 - p. Naturedetermines which restaurant Grace thinks is better. Grace then sends amessage to Lisa, either “Let’s go to the Bel Loc Diner,” “Let’s go to theCorner Stable,” or “I don’t know [which is better].” Lisa receives the message, and then Grace and Lisa simultaneously decide which restaurant to go to. Payoffs are such that Grace and Lisa want to go to the same restaurant, but they prefer it to be the one that Grace thinks is better. More specifically, if, in fact, the Bel Loc Diner is better, then the payoffs from theiractions are as shown in the…2. Kier, in The scenario, wants to determine how each of the 3 companies will decide on possible new investments. He was able to determine the new investment pay off for each of the three choices as well as the probability of the two types of market. If a company will launch product 1, it will gain 50,000 if the market is successful and lose 50,000 if the market is a failure. If a company will launch product 2, it will gain 25,000 if the market is successful and lose 25,000 if the market will fail. If a company decides not to launch any of the product, it will not be affected whether the market will succeed or fail. There is a 56% probability that the market will succeed and 44% probability that the market will fail. What will be the companies decision based on EMV? What is the decision of each company based on expected utility value?You and a coworker are assigned a team project on which your likelihood or a promotion will be decidedon. It is now the night before the project is due and neither has yet to start it. You both want toreceive a promotion next year, but you both also want to go to your company’s holiday party that night.Each of you wants to maximize his or her own happiness (likelihood of a promotion and mingling withyour colleagues “on the company’s dime”). If you both work, you deliver an outstanding presentation.If you both go to the party, your presentation is mediocre. If one parties and the other works, yourpresentation is above average. Partying increases happiness by 25 units. Working on the project addszero units to happiness. Happiness is also affected by your chance of a promotion, which is depends on howgood your project is. An outstanding presentation gives 40 units of happiness to each of you; an aboveaverage presentation gives 30 units of happiness; a mediocre presentation gives 10 units…
- Johnny is "paid" by his parents $2o if he gets a grade A, $10 if he gets a grade B, whereas he has to pay his parents back $5 if he gets a grade other than A or B. On average 20% of the grades he gets are A, and 30% are grades B. What is the expected value of what he "earns" per grade ? What is the expected value of what he "earns" at school weekly if on average he gets five grades a week ? How long should Jim save until he collects enough money to buy a pair of brand new Hi-Fi headphones that cost $225?4) You are a financial professional working in a corporate loan department. A company named Mitch Hedberg Inc. (MH) comes to you for a loan. MH has debt from a previous loan (given by a different firm than yours) of 200. Your company analysts say that MH is likely to earn either 180, 240, or 300 this year - each with a probability of 1/3. MH wants you to lend them 100. MH could use this borrowed 100 to do either project X or project Y. Project X has a guaranteed return of 125 if the 100 is put there. Project Y may return either 0 or 210; each has probability of 1/2 and also costs 100 to do. a) Which project, X or Y, has the larger expected value? b) If you lend MH the 100, what will they do with the money? Why? Show your math. c) Should you lend MH the money or not? Show your math. d) Why did I choose the letters "MH" for this problem? What financial economic concept with initials "MH" is important in this problem?If a risk‐averse individual owns a home worth $100,000, and that individual iswilling to pay a maximum of $1,000 for an annual fire insurance policy that covers theentire loss in the event of a fire, then we know that:A. There is a one percent chance that the home will be destroyed by fire inthe next yearB. There is a greater than a one percent chance that the home will bedestroyed by fire in the next yearC. There is less than a one percent chance that the home will be destroyedby fire in the next yearD. None of the above is correct
- Suppose that there is a 20 percent change that George's coffee shop will make $9000 in profits in January and a 40 percent chance it will make 1000 profits and a 40 percent chance that it will make -$1000 in profits (i.e., it will lose $1000). Calculate the coffee shop's expected profitsJin's Utility Function Wealth Utility (Dollars) 60,000 4,000 61,000 4,110 62,000 4,209 63,000 4,288 Refer to Table 27-1. If Jin's current wealth is $61,000, then O his gain in utility from gaining $1,000 is less than his loss in utility from losing $1,000. Jin is not risk averse. O his gain in utility from gaining $1,000 is greater than his loss in utility from losing $1,000. Jin is not risk averse. O his gain in utility from gaining $1,000 is greater than his loss in utility from losing $1,000. Jin is risk averse. his gain in utility from gaining $1,000 is less than his loss in utility from losing $1,000. Jin is risk averse.2. Christiaan can go hiking, or he can stay at home. Hiking would be fun if nothing bad happens, but there is a risk if he goes hiking that he will meet a bear (not fun) or get bitten by a snake (very not fun). Christiaan decides that if there is a 5% chance of meeting a bear and a 1% chance of getting bitten by a snake, he would prefer to go hiking rather than stay at home. However, if the chance of meeting a bear is 10% and the chance of a snake bite is 5%, he definitely would rather stay at home. then (a) Consider the utility function: U (stay home) = 25, U (hike no event) = 100, U (hike & snake) -1000, U (hike & bear) = -200. Does this utility function represent Christiaan's pref- erences? Explain. (b) Suppose that the utility function in (a) does represent Christiaan's preferences. Would Christiaan prefer to hike or stay home if the probability of meeting a bear is 6% and the probability of being bitten by a snake is 4%? Show your work.
- 1. Now, imagine that Port Chester decides to crack down on motorists who park illegally by increasing the number of officers issuing parking tickets (thus, raising the probability of a ticket). If the cost of a ticket is $100, and the opportunity cost for the average driver of searching for parking is $12, which of the following probabilities would make the average person stop parking illegally? Assume that people will not park illegally if the expected value of doing so is negative. Check all that apply. A. 9% B. 18% C. 17% D. 10% 2. Alternatively, the city could hold the number of officers constant and discourage parking violations by raising the fine for illegal parking. Suppose the average probability of getting caught for parking illegally is currently 10% citywide, and the average opportunity cost of parking is, again, $12. The fine that would make the average person indifferent between searching for parking and parking illegally is ____ , assuming that people will not…2) Veronica is going to sell two vases to a dealer. She can sell each vase for $10. In order to bring her vases to the dealer, Veronica needs to take a bus. There is a 50% chance that all the vases carried on one bus trip will be broken during the trip and a 50% chance that none of the vases carried on one bus trip will be broken during the trip. A roundtrip bus ticket costs $1. Veronica's net income is given by the revenues from the sale of her vases minus the cost of her bus trip(s). 2a) How many trips would Veronica make if she were risk-neutral? 2b) Suppose that Veronica's utility from income is u(w)=100ln(x+w), and that she has no wealth other than the vases (also allow her to have negative wealth as in when she takes two vases on the same trip and both break while she paid the fare). What is the expected utility of net income when Veronica takes both vases on one bus trip? And when she makes two trips? What strategy is preferred? 2c) Would Veronica's preferred strategy change if…Michael lives on an island and owns a beach house worth $400,000. Of that, $100,000 is the cost of land and $300,000 is the cost of the structure. The probability that a hurricane destroys his house is 3percent (he will still own the land). Michael can purchase hurricane insurance at the price of $2for each $100 of coverage. 1. What is Michael’s contingent consumption bundle if Michael does not purchase insurance