Statistical measures of standalone risk Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average (mean) value expected to occur during all possible circumstances. To compute an asset’s expected return under a range of possible circumstances (or states of nature), multiply the anticipated return expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence. Consider the following case: Ian owns a two-stock portfolio that invests in Falcon Freight Company (FF) and Pheasant Pharmaceuticals (PP). Three-quarters of Ian’s portfolio value consists of FF’s shares, and the balance consists of PP’s shares. Each stock’s expected return for the next year will depend on forecasted market conditions. The expected returns from the stocks in different market conditions are detailed in the following table: Market Condition Probability of Occurrence Falcon Freight Pheasant Pharmaceuticals Strong 0.50 35% 49% Normal 0.25 21% 28% Weak 0.25 -28% -35% Calculate expected returns for the individual stocks in Ian’s portfolio as well as the expected rate of return of the entire portfolio over the three possible market conditions next year. Q1. Answer here The expected rate of return on Falcon Freight’s stock over the next year is . Q2. Answer here The expected rate of return on Pheasant Pharmaceuticals’s stock over the next year is . Q3. Answer here The expected rate of return on Ian’s portfolio over the next year is . The expected returns for Ian’s portfolio were calculated based on three possible conditions in the market. Such conditions will vary from time to time, and for each condition there will be a specific outcome. These probabilities and outcomes can be represented in the form of a continuous probability distribution graph. Q4. For example, the continuous probability distributions of rates of return on stocks for two different companies are shown on the following graph: Based on the graph’s information, which of the following statements is true? a. Company A has a smaller standard deviation. b. Company B has a smaller standard deviation. Q1. Option 1 13.29% or Option 2 15.75% or Option 3 21.26% or Option 4 18.90% Q2. Option 1 22.75% or Option 2 25.71% or Option 3 14.79% or Option 4 28.21% Q3. Option 1 17.50% or Option 2 23.63% or Option 3 21.00% or Option 4 14.88% Please look at the attached graph image for more information. Thank you!
Statistical measures of standalone risk
Remember, the expected value of a probability distribution is a statistical measure of the average (mean) value expected to occur during all possible circumstances. To compute an asset’s expected return under a range of possible circumstances (or states of nature), multiply the anticipated return expected to result during each state of nature by its probability of occurrence.
Consider the following case:
Ian owns a two-stock portfolio that invests in Falcon Freight Company (FF) and Pheasant Pharmaceuticals (PP). Three-quarters of Ian’s portfolio value consists of FF’s shares, and the balance consists of PP’s shares.
Each stock’s expected return for the next year will depend on
| Market Condition | Probability of Occurrence | Falcon Freight | Pheasant Pharmaceuticals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong | 0.50 | 35% | 49% |
| Normal | 0.25 | 21% | 28% |
| Weak | 0.25 | -28% | -35% |
Calculate expected returns for the individual stocks in Ian’s portfolio as well as the expected rate of return of the entire portfolio over the three possible market conditions next year.
| Q1. Answer here | The expected rate of return on Falcon Freight’s stock over the next year is . |
| Q2. Answer here | The expected rate of return on Pheasant Pharmaceuticals’s stock over the next year is . |
| Q3. Answer here | The expected rate of return on Ian’s portfolio over the next year is . |
The expected returns for Ian’s portfolio were calculated based on three possible conditions in the market. Such conditions will vary from time to time, and for each condition there will be a specific outcome. These probabilities and outcomes can be represented in the form of a continuous probability distribution graph.
Q4. For example, the continuous probability distributions of
Based on the graph’s information, which of the following statements is true?
a. Company A has a smaller standard deviation.
b. Company B has a smaller standard deviation.
Q1. Option 1 13.29% or Option 2 15.75% or Option 3 21.26% or Option 4 18.90%
Q2. Option 1 22.75% or Option 2 25.71% or Option 3 14.79% or Option 4 28.21%
Q3. Option 1 17.50% or Option 2 23.63% or Option 3 21.00% or Option 4 14.88%
Please look at the attached graph image for more information.
Thank you!
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