Samantha’s Group of Companies is deciding if it should design an advertising system for use on its website. The first option is to skip out on designing, with no net costs or gains. The second option is System A, which would result in additional sales of either $25,000 under good conditions or -$15,000 under bad conditions. The final choice is System B, which would increase sales -$5,000 under both good and bad conditions. Note that it costs $25,000 to develop a system. Assume that good conditions are TWICE as likely as the bad conditions. (Hint: twice as likely means a ratio of 2:1). Calculate expected monetary values for all courses of action and which option should the company pursue? Justify your response.
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Samantha’s Group of Companies is deciding if it should design an advertising system for use on its website. The first option is to skip out on designing, with no net costs or gains. The second option is System A, which would result in additional sales of either $25,000 under good conditions or -$15,000 under bad conditions. The final choice is System B, which would increase sales -$5,000 under both good and bad conditions.
Note that it costs $25,000 to develop a system. Assume that good conditions are TWICE as likely as the bad conditions. (Hint: twice as likely means a ratio of 2:1).
Calculate expected monetary values for all courses of action and which option should the company pursue? Justify your response.
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Samantha’s Group of Companies is deciding if it should design an advertising system for use on its website. The first option is to skip out on designing, with no net costs or gains. The second option is System A, which would result in additional sales of either $25,000 under good conditions or -$15,000 under bad conditions. The final choice is System B, which would increase sales -$5,000 under both good and bad conditions. Note that it costs $25,000 to develop a system. Assume that good conditions are TWICE as likely as the bad conditions. (Hint: twice as likely means a ratio of 2:1). Outline the ultimate objective for the use of decision trees in product design. How is this objective accomplished? Draw the appropriate decision tree for the above problem.
- The president of AS Electronics, Inc., has two design options for his new line of cathode ray tubes (CRTs). The forecast for the CRTs is 100,000 units annually. The company will make 100,000 units using one of the two designs at a cost of $75 each. Good CRTs can be sold, but bad CRTs are destroyed and have no salvage value. (Ignore any disposal cost issues for the moment.) The company can sell good CRTs for $150. Design option A has a .90 probability of yielding 59 good CRTs per 100 and a .10 probability of yielding 64 good CRTs per 100. The design will cost $1,000,000. Design option B has a .80 probability of yielding 64 good CRTs per 100 and a .20 probability of yielding 59 good CRTs per 100. The design will cost $1,350,000. Draw and label the decision tree (for two design options with two possible yields each). Calculate the first-year payoff for each option. [Payoff = Annual Revenues – annual manufacturing costs – design costs] Calculate the expected payoff for each of the…Mary Williams, owner of Williams Products, is evaluating whether to introduce a new product line. After thinking through the production process and the costs of raw materials and new equipment, Williams estimates the variable costs of each unit produced and sold at $8 and the fixed costs per year at $70,000. What other considerations would be crucial to the final decision about making and marketing the new product?The lease of Theme Park, Inc., is about to expire. Management must decide whether to renew the lease for another 10 years or to relocate near the site of a proposed motel. The town planning board is currently debating the merits of granting approval to the motel. A consultant has estimated the net present value of Theme Park’s two alternatives under each state of nature as shown on the following page. What course of action would you recommend using?a. Maximaxb. Maximinc. Laplaced. Minimax regretOptionsMotelApprovedMotelRejectedRenew $ 500,000 $4,000,000Relocate 5,000,000 100,000
- Problem 1. During your first month as an employee at Greenfield Industries (a large drill- bit manufacturer), you are asked to evaluate alternatives for producing a newly designed drill bit on a turning machine. Your boss' memorandum to you has practically no information about what the alternatives are and what criteria should be used. The same task was posed to a previous employee who could not finish the analysis, but she has given you the following information: An old turning machine valued at $350,000 exists (in the warehouse) that can be modified for the new drill bit. The in-house technicians have given an estimate of $40,000 to modify this machine, and they assure you that they will have the machine ready before the projected start date (although they have never done any modifications of this type). It is hoped that the old turning machine will be able to meet production requirements at full capacity. An outside company, McDonald Inc., made the machine seven years ago and can…Suzy's Temporary Employee (STE) business, located in a big city, can do an online criminal background check in-house for $1.95 per search with a fixed cost of $23,000. A third-party online security firm offered to do a similar security search for $9.00 per person with an annual service contract with STE. If STE's forecast is 2,900 searches next year, should STE continue to do the search in-house or accept the third- party offer? Use the Excel template Break-Even to determine the best decision. Round your answer for the breakeven quantity to the nearest whole number and round your answer for the amount of saving/loss to the nearest dollar. Breakeven quantity: Since the demand forecast of 2,900 searches is -Select-than the breakeven quantity, STE -Select- ✓outsource the work. STE -Select- $ by outsourcing. searchesSuzy's Temporary Employee (STE) business, located in a big city, can do an online criminal background check in-house for $3.48 per search with a fixed cost of $30,000. A third-party online security firm offered to do a similar security search for $9.00 per person with an annual service contract with STE. If STE's forecast is 3,100 searches next year, should STE continue to do the search in-house or accept the third-party offer? Use the Excel template Break-Even to determine the best decision. Round your answer for the breakeven quantity to the nearest whole number and round your answer for the amount of saving/loss to the nearest dollar. Breakeven quantity: searches Since the demand forecast of 3,100 searches is than the breakeven quantity, STE outsource the work. STE $ by outsourcing.
