Problems 2 Helen Murvis, hospital administrator for Portland General Hospital, is trying to determine whether to build a large wing onto the existing hospital, a small wing, or no wing at all. If the population of Portland continues to grow, a large wing could return $150,000 to the hospital each year. If the small wing were built, it would return $60,000 to the hospital each year if the population continues to grow. If the population of Portland remains the same, the hospital would encounter a loss of $85,000 if the large wing were built. Furthermore, a loss of $45,000 would be realized if the small wing were constructed and the population remains the same. Unfortunately, Helen does not have any information about the future population of Portland Develop a decision table for this problem. Determine the best decision using the following decision criteria 1. Maximax 2. Maximin 3. Minimax Regret 4. Hurwicz (use a coefficient of realism of 0.75) Equal likelihood 5. 6. Expected Value 7. Expected Opportunity loss 8. Develop a decision tree with expected values at the probability nodes. Calculate the EVPI 9
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
- Suzy's Temporary Employee (STE) business, located in a big city, can do an online criminal background check in-house for $1.95 per search with a fixed cost of $23,000. A third-party online security firm offered to do a similar security search for $9.00 per person with an annual service contract with STE. If STE's forecast is 2,900 searches next year, should STE continue to do the search in-house or accept the third- party offer? Use the Excel template Break-Even to determine the best decision. Round your answer for the breakeven quantity to the nearest whole number and round your answer for the amount of saving/loss to the nearest dollar. Breakeven quantity: Since the demand forecast of 2,900 searches is -Select-than the breakeven quantity, STE -Select- ✓outsource the work. STE -Select- $ by outsourcing. searchesAs part of their application for a loan to buy Lakeside Farm, a property they hope to develop as a bed-and-breakfast operation, the prospective owners have projected: Monthly fixed cost (loan payment, taxes, insurance, maintenance) $6000 Variable cost per occupied room per night $ 20 Revenue per occupied room per night $ 75 A. Write the expression for total cost per month. Assume 30 days per month. B. Write the expression for total revenue per month. C. How many rooms do they need to sell per night in order to break even?Suzy's Temporary Employee (STE) business, located in a big city, can do an online criminal background check in-house for $3.48 per search with a fixed cost of $30,000. A third-party online security firm offered to do a similar security search for $9.00 per person with an annual service contract with STE. If STE's forecast is 3,100 searches next year, should STE continue to do the search in-house or accept the third-party offer? Use the Excel template Break-Even to determine the best decision. Round your answer for the breakeven quantity to the nearest whole number and round your answer for the amount of saving/loss to the nearest dollar. Breakeven quantity: searches Since the demand forecast of 3,100 searches is than the breakeven quantity, STE outsource the work. STE $ by outsourcing.
- Chambers Hotel use the simple exponential smoothing technique to forecast its occupancy for every Saturday since its opening 10 weeks ago. The actual demand for last Saturday was 42 rooms. The calculated forecast was 50 rooms. A 0.30 weight is given to the most recent demand last Saturday. The forecast for the coming Saturday is Select one: O a. 48.20 O b. 47.90 O C 47.60 O d. None of the above1. A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to buy and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities: Cost of land: $2 million. Probability of rezoning: 0.60. If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70 percent chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chain for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30 percent chance that she can sell it to an…Problem 17 page 552The chancellor of a small regional college is concernedabout the declining freshman enrollment at his college. A number of factors have contributed to the decline, butthe chancellor believes it is directly related to annualtuition increases. He has collected the following data forthe past 8 years.year FreshmanEnrollmentAnnualTuition (In USdollars)1 6,550 32,0002 6,230 37,0003 5,980 45,2004 5,540 45,7005 4,960 46,2006 4,630 46,7007 4,520 52,2008 4,220 57,700a Develop a linear regression equation for forecastingfreshman enrollment as a function of the annual tuition.b Forecast freshman enrollment if the annual tuitionincreases by US$9,000 in Year 9.c Evaluate the "goodness of fit" of the regressionequation by computing the values of R2, r, and Syx and interpret the results.
- Decision Under Uncertainty: Suppose the management at somaya Inc., is considering changing the size (capacity) of its manufacturing plant. Management has narrowed the decision to three choices. The plant's capacity will be (1) expanded by 20 percent, (2) maintained at the current capacity, or (3) reduced by 20 percent. The outcome of this decision depends crucially on how the economy performs during the upcoming year. Thus the performance of the economy is the "state of nature" in this decision problem. For each possible decision and state of nature, the managers determine the profit outcome, or payoff, shown in the payoff matrix in table 1. Table 1 The Payoff Matrix for somaya Inc. States of Nature Decision Recovery AED 15 million AED 6 million AED 2 million Stagnation Recession -AEĎ 2 million - AED 6 million Expand Plant Capacity of 20 % Maintain same Plant Capacity AED 4 million AED 1 million Reduce Plant Capacity of 20 % AED 1 million AED 1.5 million The managers do not know which…Management for a 500 room lodging operation predicts the following statistics for August next year: 95 percent occupancy, $89 average room rate, and the operation will be open 31 days. Forecast the room sales amount for August next year.• Use this information for the question below. Low-Grade Copper Ore $571 per Ton High-Grade Copper Ore $843 per Ton Coloma Cooper Incorporated is able to produce $640 worth of copper from one ton of low-grade copper ore. Because of its higher copper content, Coloma can produce $940 worth of copper from one ton of high-grade copper ore. A mining company is offering to trade 7,250 tons of low-grade copper ore for 5,000 tons of high-grade copper ore. Assuming Coloma currently has 5,000 tons of high-grade ore, what should it do?