Quarter 2Flora Co intends to expand the business to include a home delivery service. The delivery van is expected tocost $20,000 and the business has a 60% chance of the new delivery service being successful.The following decision tree has been produced to represent this decision. The final profit figures in thedecision tree are based upon whether demand is good or poor for the new delivery service.ExpandCost of van($20,000)KeyDDon'texpandDecisionOutcomeSuccess 0.6Failure 0.4ABGood 0.7Poor 0.3Good 0.2Poor 0.8$600,000$100,000$10,000$8,000$0 In Quarter 2 what is the expected value at outcome A (before the cost of the delivery van)?$

Here, I am given the decision tree, Based on whether the demand is good or bad, the final profit…

Answered: In Quarter 2 what is the expected value…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 46P

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Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
3. A toy manufacturer makes stuffed kittens and puppies which have relatively lifelike motions. There are three different mechanisms that can be installed in these "pets." These toys will sell for the same price regardless of the mechanism installed, but each mechanism has its own variable cost and setup cost. Profit, therefore, is dependent upon the choice of mechanism and upon the level of demand. The manufacturer has in hand a forecast of demand that suggests a 0.2 probability of light demand, a 0.45 probability of moderate demand, and a probability of 0.35 of heavy demand. Payoffs for each mechanism-demand combination appear in the table below. Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electronic action Demand Light Moderate $250,000 $90,000 -$100,000 400,000 440,000 400,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 780,000 Construct the appropriate decision tree to analyze this problem. Use standard symbols for the tree. Analyze the tree to select the optimal decision for the manufacturer.
Papaya Partners is a distributor of papayas. They purchase papayas from individual growers and package them in 10-pound cartons for delivery to their various customers, generally supermarkets. Last month, they budgeted to sell $500,000 worth of cartons at a price of $25 each. Actual sales met a budget of $500,000 at $25 per carton. The management has received cost information based on actual performance and needs to understand the drivers of the overall variance from the budget. They have asked you, as an analyst in their management accounting department, to calculate and explain the variances. The following data has been provided: Budget Cost of fruit @ 10 pounds per carton $ 200,000 Cost of packaging @ 1 pound per carton $ 10,000 Labor costs @ .5 hourse per carton $ 90,000 Total Cost $ 300,000 Actual Cost of fruit @ 10 pounds per carton $ 244,200 Cost of packaging @ .55 pound percarton$ 11,000 Labor costs @ .75 hourse per carton $ 150,000 Total Cost $405,200 WHAT IS THE STANDARD COST…
Two items are omitted from each of the following three lists of cost of goods sold data from a manufacturing company income statement. Determine the amounts of the missing items, identifying them by letter. Finished goods Inventory,June1 $61,600 $46,200 (e) Cost of goods manufactured 329,000 (c ) 484,800 Cost of finished goods available for sales (a) $260,400 $540,000 Finished goods Inventory ,June30 72,800 61,600 (f) Cost of goods sold (b) (d) $513,600
3.3 BriteSmile brand of teeth whitening products is considering adding a modified ver- sion of the product-a gel product in addition to its regular paste product. Variable costs and prices to wholesalers are: Unit selling price Unit variable costs Current paste product $5.00 $1.50 New gel product $6.50 $3.25 BriteSmile expects to sell 2 million units of the new gel product in the first year after introduction, but it estimates that only 30% of those sales will come from buyers who do not already purchase the company's paste product (that is, new customers). BriteSmile estimates that it would sell 3 million units of the current paste product if it did not introduce the gel. If the fixed costs of launching the new gel product will be $300,000 during the first year, should BriteSmile add the new gel product to its line? Why or why not?
A shop will decide to sell either product A or B or C in the coming season. Demand in that season can be high, average or low. Payoff table below shows the related returns in TL. You will create your own data for Product B row:)) States of nature Alternatives High demand Average demand Low demand Product A 2000 1000 -200 Product B Product C 1000 500 400 a. What would be the decision according to Minimax Regret? b. What is the maximum amount of money the company should pay for perfect information? (Assign probabilities for high, average and low demand)
Benetton is studying two alternative contracts with a retailer for a seasonal product, Revenue-Sharing contract and Quantity Flexibility contract. Attributes and terms of the two contracts are presented below. Profit Sharing Contract: Benetton production cost is $20, and it charges the retailer a low wholesale price of $25. The retailer prices to the customers at $55 per unit. The retailer forecasts demand to be normally distributed, with a mean of 4,000 and standard deviation of 1,600. Any unsold product are discounted to $15, and all sell at this price. The retailer will share 30% of the revenue with Bennetton, keeping 70% for itself. Quantity Flexibility Contract: If the retailer orders O units, Benneton is willing to provide up to another 35% if needed. Benetton's production cost is $20, and it charges the retailer a wholesale price of $36. The retailer prices to the customers at $55 per unit. Any unsold units can be sold by the retailer at a salvage value of $25. Bennetton can…
On August, a light business bought $3600 worth of lamps. At the beginning of September, the store had $1400 in lights on hand, and by the end of September, it projected to have $1600 in lamps on hand to meet some of the forecasted October sales. And what's the August planned cost of goods sold?
Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Winter Park Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: Percent Defective Probability for Winter Park Probability for Dayton 1% 3% 5% .70 .20 .10 .30 .30 .40 Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order. A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0.50. When determining the costs for each branch (Decision Tree), utilize the number per order (*) the percent defective (*) the repair cost. a. What is the EMV for Winter Park? $ [Select ] b. What is the EMV for Dayton? $$127 c. What choice should Deborah Kellogg make? [Select] >

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In Quarter 2 what is the expected value at outcome A (before the cost of the delivery van)? $