Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives.AlternativesLowFuture DemandModerateSmall Facility4948Medium Facility4647Large Facility-1211247AlternativesSmall FacilityMedium FacilityLarge FacilityWorst Regrets???a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is Blank 1b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is Blank 2c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is Blank 3d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select Blank 4 facility47ཆེ་ཆེ་བེ་རྡོHigh

The answers to the questions are:a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is 2.b) The…

Answered: Given is a decision payoff table and a…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 30P

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Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives. Future Demand Alternatives Low Moderate High Small Facility 31 18 15 Medium Facility 20 35 21 Large Facility -10 31 35 Alternatives Worst Regrets Small Facility ? Medium Facility ? Large Facility ? a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is ( ) b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is ( ) c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is ( ) d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select ( ) facility
Given is a decision payoff table and a Sub Decision Payoff Table. Use Minimax Regret as an evaluation criterion to evaluate alternatives. Alternatives Low Future Demand Moderate High Small Facility 52 42 43 Medium Facility 50 49 49 Large Facility -15 38 Alternatives Small Facility Medium Facility Large Facility Worst Regrets ? ? ? a) The worst regrets for alternative Small Facility is Blank 1 b) The worst regrets for alternative Medium Facility is Blank 2 c) The worst regrets for alternative Large Facility is Blank 3 d) The best course of action or decision by using Minimax Regret is to select Blank 4 facility 51
Exhibit 20-2Below is a payoff table involving three states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision States of Nature Alternative s1 s2 s3 A 80 45 –20 B 40 50 15 P(s1) = .1, P(s2) = .6, and P(s3) = .3.Refer to Exhibit 20-2. The expected value of the best alternative equals _____. a. 12 b. 38.5 c. 29 d. 105
The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with two states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision Alternative State of Nature $1 d₁ d₂ (a) Suppose P(s₁) = 0.2 and P(5₂) = 0.8. What is the best decision using the expected value approach? The best decision is --?-- with an expected value of 12 $₂ 6 3 5 (b) Perform sensitivity analysis on the payoffs for decision alternative d₂. Assume the probabilities are as given in part (a), and find the range of payoffs under states of natures, and so that will keep the solution found in part (a) optimal. As long as the payoff for s₁ under d₁ is --?-- , then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. As long as the payoff for s₂ under d₁ is --?-- Is the solution more sensitive to the payoff under state of nature s₁ or 5₂? O $₁ 0 5₂
Help A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 85 Rent 70 50 Lease 45 55 Prior Probability 0.7 0.3 Using Baye's Decision Rule, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) Best decision Payoff 4-
Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for the purpose of establishing a new vineyard. Management is considering two varieties of white grapes for the new vineyard: Chardonnay and Riesling. The Chardonnay grapes would be used to produce a dry Chardonnay wine, and the Riesling grapes would be used to produce a semidry Riesling wine. It takes approximately four years from the time of planting before new grapes can be harvested. This length of time creates a great deal of uncertainty concerning future demand and makes the decision concerning the type of grapes to plant difficult. Three possibilities are being considered: Chardonnay grapes only; Riesling grapes only; and both Chardonnay and Riesling grapes. Seneca management decided that for planning purposes it would be adequate to consider only two demand possibilities for each type of wine: strong or weak. With two possibilities for each type of wine it was necessary to assess four probabilities. With the help of some forecasts in…
DAAPS A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. 1 States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 80 10 Rent 60 45 Lease 50 40 Using the Maximin criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? Best decision Payoff
A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 95 10 Rent 65 35 Lease 45 50 Prior Probability 0.8 0.2 Using Baye's Decision Rule, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) Best decision Payoff Prev 1 of 5 Next >
DECISION THEORY. A man has to decide wheter to resign or not from his present position and apply for a job offering him 2x his present salary, that is if he passes the qualifying test. At present, he receives $3000 monthly compensation. The offer from another company has a condition that he will not be allowed to take the qualifying test, he will immediately be taken in and have a monthly pay of $6000. If he fails, he will remain jobless, he feels that his chance of passing the test is 35%. Suppose he decides to base his decision on expected value, should he resign from his post or not?
The personnel manager ranked all the criteria, except salary, in order of importance and then assigned weights as follows: COMMITMENT100 MANAGEMENT EXP 70 IDEAS 65 CHARITY EXP 55 EDUCATION 10 *Note that, on the basis of the application form, all of the candidates appeared to be equally committed to the charity* Q: Discuss whether the method the personnel manager used to assess these weights is appropriate

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