Edwards Machine Tools needs to purchase a new machine. The basic model is slower but costs less, while the advanced model is faster but costs more. Profitability will depend on future demand. The following table presents an estimate of profits over the next three years. Decision Low Medium High Basic Model $65,000 $85,000 $125,000 Advanced Model $70,000 $140,000 $240,000 Given the uncertainty associated with the demand volume and no other information to work with, how would you make a decision? Use the Excel template Decision Analysis and explain your reasoning.
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Edwards Machine Tools needs to purchase a new machine. The basic model is slower but costs less, while the advanced model is faster but costs more. Profitability will depend on future demand. The following table presents an estimate of profits over the next three years.
|
Decision |
Low |
Medium |
High |
|
Basic Model |
$65,000 |
$85,000 |
$125,000 |
|
Advanced Model |
$70,000 |
$140,000 |
$240,000 |
Given the uncertainty associated with the demand volume and no other information to work with, how would you make a decision?
Use the Excel template Decision Analysis and explain your reasoning.
Step by step
Solved in 3 steps with 7 images
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
- Sales for the last quarter of the year were good, with tops sales at 3,400 units and pants sales at 3,200 units. Demand for the first quarter sales of next year is expected to decline by 8%. What is your forecast for the demand of tops and pants? Tops Sales Forecast: 0 ▲ ▼ Pants Sales Forecast: 0 ▲ ▼ Is there anything you could do to help minimize the effect of the projected decline in demand on sales?Gamers Empire is considering marketing one of two new video games for the coming holiday season: Aliens Kidnapped My Dog or Ninjas vs. Pirates. Aliens Kidnapped My Dog does not appear to have any competition as it is a unique game. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) under high, medium and low demand are as follows: Demand Aliens Kidnapped My Dog High Medium Low Profit $1100 $800 $400 Probability 0.3 0.4 0.3 Gamers Empire is optimistic about Ninjas vs. Pirates. However, the concern is that profitability will be affect by their competitor Samurai Games releasing a similar title called Samurai vs. Robots. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) with and without competition are as follows: Demand Ninjas vs. Pirates with competition High Medium Low Profit $900 $500 $300 Probability 0.3 0.3 0.4 Ninjas vs. Pirates without competition Profit $1700 $900 $500 Probability 0.5 0.2 0.3 a) Construct a decision tree. b) Calculate the EMVs and state your decision if there is a 75%…A local toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows: Light Demand Moderate Demand Heavy Demand Probability 0.25 0.45 0.3 Wind-up action $325,000 $190,000 $170,000 Pneumatic action $300,000 $420,000 $400,000 Electrical action -$400,000 $240,000 $800,000 What is the ultimate objective in the use of decision trees to product design? How is this objective accomplished? Draw the decision tree. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected?
- 2. A toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows. Light Demand 0.25 $325,000 $300,000 -$400,000 Heavy Demand 0.3 Probability Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electrical action Moderate Demand 0.45 $190,000 $420,000 S170,000 $400,000 $800,000 $240,000 a. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? b. Which action should be selected? c. What is the expected value with perfect information? d. What is the expected value of perfect information? e. What is the expected opportunity loss?Brown's, a local bakery, is worried about increased costs particularly energy. Last year's records can provide a fairly good estimate of the parameters for this year. Wende Brown, the owner, does not believe things have changed much, but she did invest an additional $2,500 for modifications to the bakery's ovens to make them more energy efficient. The modifications were supposed to make the ovens at least 15% more efficient. Brown has asked you to check the energy savings of the new ovens and also to look over other measures of the bakery's productivity to see if the modifications were beneficial. You have the following data to work with: Last Year Now Production (dozen) 1,600 1,600 Labor (hours) 340 320 Capital Investment ($) 15,000 17,500 Energy (BTU) 3,000 2,800 Energy productivity increase =____ (enter your response as a percentage rounded to two decimal places and include a minus sign if necessary). Capital productivity increase = ____(enter your…A project will cost $45,000 to develop.• When the system becomes operational after a one-year development period, operational costs willbe $9,000 during each year of the system’s five-year useful life.• The system will produce benefits of $30,000 in the first year of operation, and this figure willincrease by a compound 10% each year.What is the payback period for this project?
- Brown's, a local bakery, is worried about increased costs particularly energy. Last year's records can provide a fairly good estimate of the parameters for this year. Wende Brown, the owner, does not believe things have changed much, but she did invest an additional $2,500 for modifications to the bakery's ovens to make them more energy efficient. The modifications were supposed to make the ovens at least 15% more efficient. Brown has asked you to check the energy savings of the new ovens and also to look over other measures of the bakery's productivity to see if the modifications were beneficial. You have the following data to work with: Last Year Now Production (dozen) 1,600 1,600 Labor (hours) 350 325 Capital Investment ($) 16,000 18,500 Energy (BTU) 3,000 2,800 Energy productivity increase = %(enter your response as a…Brown's, a local bakery, is worried about increased costs particularly energy. Last year's records can provide a fairly good estimate of the parameters for this year. Wende Brown, the owner, does not believe things have changed much, but she did invest an additional $2,500 for modifications to the bakery's ovens to make them more energy efficient. The modifications were supposed to make the ovens at least 15% more efficient. Brown has asked you to check the energy savings of the new ovens and also to look over other measures of the bakery's productivity to see if the modifications were beneficial. You have the following data to work with: Last Year 1,500 350 15,000 3,000 Now Production (dozen) 1,500 Labor (hours) 325 Capital Investment ($) 17,500 Energy (BTU) 2,750 % (enter your response as a percentage rounded to two decimal places and include Energy productivity increase = a minus sign if necessary). : >>>Brown's, a local bakery, is worried about increased costs particularly energy. Last year's records can provide a fairly good estimate of the parameters for this year. Wende Brown, the owner, does not believe things have changed much, but she did invest an additional $2,500 for modifications to the bakery's ovens to make them more energy efficient. The modifications were supposed to make the ovens at least 15% more efficient. Brown has asked you to check the energy savings of the new ovens and also to look over other measures of the bakery's productivity to see if the modifications were beneficial. You have the following data to work with: Last Year 1,500 350 15,000 3,000 Production (dozen) Labor (hours) Capital Investment ($) Energy (BTU) Energy productivity increase = 9.1 % (enter your response as a percentage rounded to two decimal places and include a minus sign if necessary). 14.30 % (enter your response as a percentage rounded to two decimal places and include a minus sign if…
