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Develop a decision tree for the medical professionals to analyze this problem. Use the EMV approach to recommend a strategy.

Develop a decision tree for the medical professionals to analyze this problem. Use the EMV approach to recommend a strategy.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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Q1. Without the market study, what is the best decision? 

Q2.What is the best decision if they revive an unfavourable report?

 

A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don't have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians' best guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the clinic will be successful. The physicians have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim their experience enables them to use Bayes' Theorem to make the following statements of probability: Probability of a favorable market given a favorable study is 0.82; Probability of an unfavorable market given a favorable study is 0.18; Probability of a favorable market given an unfavorable study is 0.1089; Probability of an unfavorable market given a unfavorable study is 0.8911; Probability of a favorable study is 0.55; Probability of an unfavorable study is 0.45; Develop a decision tree for the medical professionals to analyze this problem. Use the EMV approach to recommend a strategy.
Transcribed Image Text:A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don't have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians' best guess is that there is a 50-50 chance the clinic will be successful. The physicians have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim their experience enables them to use Bayes' Theorem to make the following statements of probability: Probability of a favorable market given a favorable study is 0.82; Probability of an unfavorable market given a favorable study is 0.18; Probability of a favorable market given an unfavorable study is 0.1089; Probability of an unfavorable market given a unfavorable study is 0.8911; Probability of a favorable study is 0.55; Probability of an unfavorable study is 0.45; Develop a decision tree for the medical professionals to analyze this problem. Use the EMV approach to recommend a strategy.
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