Determine the expected value of the contribution
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A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six
months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the
fixed costs of the venture as shown below:
Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost Probability
100 000 0.3 K 7 0.5 K400 000 0.2
Page 5 of
80 000 0.6 K 5 0.5 K450 000 0.5
60 000 0.1 K500 000 0.3
1.0 1.0 1.0
Determine the expected value of the contribution
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- A. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.03. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.
- The water pump company has succeeded in introducing a water pump that saves electricity, is easy to install, and is durable (guaranteed). Its high quality has given the company an early edge in the local and national markets, but the entry of highly skilled competitors may occur within the next 3 years. Assume that the income and expense relationship of the company is as follows: TR = 22000Q - 15.6Q2 MR = dTR / dQ = 22000 - 31.2Q TC = 300000 + 4640Q + 10Q2 MC = dTC / dQ = 4640 + 20Q Where TR is income (in thousands of rupiah), Q is quantity (in units), MR is marginal income (in thousands of rupiah), TC is total cost, including a risk-adjusted normal rate of return on investment (in thousands of rupiah), and MC is the marginal cost (in thousands of rupiah). a. Compute: the profit-maximizing price-output combination. b. Compute: long-run equilibrium high-price / low-output. c. Compute: long-run low-price / high-output equilibriumPayoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?Cost Planning; Gasoline Prices In June 2008, when gasoline prices were at an all-time high(more than $4 per gallon), Chrysler Motor Company promoted its Jeep vehicle with the offer of either$4,500 off the price of the vehicle or the guarantee that the buyer would not pay more than $2.99 pergallon of gas for the next 3 years (the details of the guarantee could vary by dealer).Required1. Assume that the Jeep vehicle you are interested in gets 15 mpg combined city/highway and that at thetime of purchase, you expected gasoline prices to average $5 per gallon over the next 3 years. How manymiles would you have to drive the vehicle in the next 3 years to make the guarantee more attractive thanthe $4,500 discount?
- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent on the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): (bold and underline is answer/ --- = needs answer) State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.40, P(s2) = 0.40, and P(s3) = 0.20. Do not round your intermediate calculations. (a) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. Purchase Component Part (b) Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. Enter your answer in thousands dollars. For example, an answer of $200 thousands should be entered as 200,000. Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of…The White Fish company is launching its new food for sale in supermarkets throughout Illinois. The sales department is convinced that its spicy fish dip will be a great success. The marketing department is considering an intensive advertising campaign. The advertising campaign will cost $1,900,000 and if successful (70% chance) produce $9,600,000 in added revenue. If the campaign is less successful (30% chance), the added revenue is estimated at only $4.200,000. If no advertising is used, the revenue is estimated at $6,500,000 if customers are receptive (with probability 0.75) and $3.200,000 with probability 0.25 if they are not receptive. a. Draw the associated decision tree. b. Roll Back Tree: Should White Fish invest in an intensive advertising campaign? c. Perform sensitivity analysis on probability of successful advertising campaign, which is now 0.7. Detemine the range of the probability of success for which the current decision is still the best choice. d. Perform sensitivity…The medical team at Birzeit Hospital are not sure whether to buy the COVID-19 vaccine from supplier A, B, or C. The analysis of previous experience dealing with the three suppliers reveals the following vaccine quality: Percent of ineffective vaccines Probability for Supplier A Probability for Supplier B Probability for Supplier C 2 0.60 0.50 0.70 5 0.30 0.30 0.00 7 0.10 0.20 0.30 The hospital buys 25000 vaccines each year which means that the probability to get 2% ineffective vaccines is 0.60 from supplier A, 0.50 from supplier B, and 0.70 from supplier C. Develop a decision tree to show your recommended alternative (supplier).
- a business owner is planning to strategies his company's growth, he can either buy , rent, or lease a new factory depending on how the business is doing. He was given the following payoff table based on whether the business is doing good or business is slow. Aletnative Business Doing Goood Business Slow Buy 90 -10 Rent 70 40 Lease 60 55 The probability of business doing good is 0.7 and the probability of slow business is 0.3. Using Lapace method, the strategy is: A. Do nothing B. Lease C. Rent D. BuyAn expensive piece of equipment is used in the masking operation for semiconductor manufacture.A capacitor in the equipment fails randomly. The capacitor costs $7.50, but if it burns out while the machine is in use, the production process must be halted. Here the replacement cost is estimated to be $150. Based on past experience, the lifetime distribution of the capacitor is estimated to be Number of Months Probability of of Service Failure 1 .08 2 .12 3 .16 4 .26 5 .22 6…Alternative A1 A2 Prior Probability State of Nature S1 S2 -40 100 0.4 75 0 0.6 There is an option of paying $100 to have research done to better predict which state of nature will occur. When the true state of nature is S1, the research will accurately predict S1 60% of the time. When the true state of nature is S2, the research will accurately predict S2 80% of the time. What is the posterior probability of S2 given that the research predicts S2?