Data collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Registrations (000) 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 11.0 9.0 6.0 11.0 13.0 16.0 17.0 This exercise contains only parts a and b. a) Using a 3-year moving average, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses to one decimal place): Year 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 4.67 6.67 8 8.67 8.67 10 13.33 15.33 b) Using a 3-year weighted moving average in which the registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses to one decimal place): Year 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 Forecast
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- At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of Pints Used August 31 360 September 7 389 September 14 412 September 21 383 September 28 366 October 5 374 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average LOADING... = 374.33374.33 pints (round your response to two decimal places). b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.15, 0.35, and 0.50, using 0.50 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = 372.55372.55 pints (round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order — the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.) c) If the forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 360 and α = 0.20, using exponential smoothing,…The number of heart surgeries performed at HeartvilleGeneral Hospital has increased steadily over the past sev-eral years. The hospital’s administration is seeking the bestmethod to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6.The data for the past 5 years are shown. The hospital’s administration is considering the followingforecasting methods. Begin error measurement in year 3 soall methods are compared for the same years.i. Exponential smoothing, with a = 0.6. Let the initial fore-cast for year 1 be 45, the same as the actual demand.ii. Exponential smoothing, with a = 0.9. Let the initial fore-cast for year 1 be 45, the same as the actual demand.iii. Trend projection with regression.iv. Two-year moving average.v. Two-year weighted moving average, using weights 0.6 and0.4, with more recent data given more weight.vi. If MAD is the performance criterion chosen by the admin-istration, which forecasting method should it choose?vii. If MSE is the performance criterion chosen by the…
- Spring 2019 Credit Card Products Collections DFD At Columbia Southern Bank, credit card accounts are booked and serviced at Individualized BankCard Services(IBS). If such accounts become delinquent, their information is sent to the collection system via the IBS FILE (see appendix D). This file is sent to the collection system on a daily basis. Besides being used to update the collection history database it is used to generate the IBS new accounts report. Recall that the predictive dialer software is used as part of the collection process. It involves using packaged software to contact delinquent borrowers. Using a file of telephone and account numbers the software takes into consideration how many collection agents are working at the given time and paces the calls accordingly. This will assure that an agent will be available to take the call if a delinquent customer answers the telephone when the dialer places the call. When a customer answers the…Room registrations in the Toronto Towers Plaza Hotel have been recorded for the past 9 years. To project future occu-pancy, management would like to determine the mathemati-cal trend of guest registration. This estimate will help the hotel determine whether future expansion will be needed. Given the following time-series data, develop a regression equation relat-ing registrations to time (e.g., a trend equation). Then forecast year 11 registrations. Room registrations are in the thousands:Year 1: 17 Year 2: 16 Year 3: 16 Year 4: 21 Year 5: 20Year 6: 20 Year 7: 23 Year 8: 25 Year 9: 24The manager of Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of demand for Soft Shag Carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpet from one of Carpet City’s many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months: Month Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd) 1 8 2 12 3 7 4 9 5 15 6 11 7 10 8 12 Required showing all workings: Compute a 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Compute a weighted 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33 and 0.12 to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent month.
- The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week of Pints Used August 31 360 September 7 370 September 14 412 September 21 383 September 28 371 October 5 371 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average= {__] Pints (round your response to two decimal places).The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of Pints Used August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 345 370 410 378 368 October 5 371 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average = 372.33 pints (round your response to two decimal places). b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.15, 0.30, and 0.55, using 0.55 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = pints (round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order – the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.)The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 October 5 Pints Used 345 389 412 383 366 371 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average decimal places). pints (round your response to two