Answered: Consider the following time series…

Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry

13th Edition

ISBN:9781133382119

Author:Swokowski

Publisher:Swokowski

Chapter5: Inverse, Exponential, And Logarithmic Functions

Section5.3: The Natural Exponential Function

Problem 40E

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Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	17	14	17	11	16	15

Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.

If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week	Value	Forecast
1	17
2	14
3	17
4	11
5	16
6	15

MSE:

The forecast for week 7:

(c)

Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.

If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week	Value	Forecast
1	17
2	14
3	17
4	11
5	16
6	15

MSE:

The forecast for week 7:

(d)

Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

- Select your answer -Three-week moving averageExponential SmoothingItem 15

Explain.

The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.

(e)

Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.20. Use a two-decimal digit precision.

alpha:

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