Compute correctly the 3day forecast report, show the computation and solutions
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- Question 1 ) The monthiy sales Of yamizí Battery company are asfollows:- Month Jales 2000 2100 1500 1400 1300 Calcuiate fore cost sales for June using each of the fo llowing method: - i) Naive Method 1M 3 Month Simple moving averoger Ti) Exponentral smoothing using an a =0:3 cand may forecast of 1600 units.» 95 A cosmetics manufacturer's marketing department has developed a linear trend equation that can be used to predict annual sales of its popular Hand & Foot Cream. Ft = 80 + 25t where Ft = Annual sales (000 bottles), t is in years. Predict annual sales for year 6? 170 230 10 % 6 52 min 42 secsYear Bushels Simple Exp. Smoothing Forecast Trend Factor Adjusted Exp. Smoothing Forecast 1 48 48 0 48 2 52 48 0 48 3 54 49 .30 49.30 4 56 5 66 6 62 What is the simple exponential smoothing forecast for years 4-6? And also what is adjsted exponential smoothing forecast for these years 4-6?
- *** Can you please demonstrate how to do parts d, e, f? Given: Year Demand 1 7 2 9 3 5 4 9 5 Predict the value for Year 5: 2 year moving average What is MSE for 2 year moving average? 2 year moving average using 0.6 (weight for the oldest period) and 0.4(weight for most recent period Exponential smoothing, =0.2 and forecast for Year 1 = 5 Linear trend Which forecast method has the least amount of error using MAD? What is the coefficient?1. Solve manually. a. Income at the law firm Smith and Wesson for the period February to July was as follows: Month Feb Mar Аpr May June July Income $ 70.00 71.30 (in thousand) 68.50 64.30 71.70 72.8 Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast the law firm's August income. Assume that the initial forecast for February is $65,000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The smoothing constants selected are alpha = 0.1 and beta = 0.2 %3D1. National mixer, Inc. sells can openers. Monthly sales fo a seven-month . period were as follows: Sales Month (000 units) Feb-- -19 March -18 April May June- 15 20 18 July Aug.--- 22 20 a. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: 1. A five month-moving average 2. The naïve approach 3. A weighted using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June. b. Which method seems least appropriate? And Why? c. What does use of the term sales rather than demand presume?
- 25. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.4, if smoothed forecast was 2,600? A. 2,680 B. 2,808 C. 2,760 D. 3,128 E. 3,160 year 2007's35. The Mr. Meadows Cookie Company can obtain accurate forecasts for 12 months based on firm orders. These forecasts and the number of workdays per month are as follows: Demand Forecast Month (in thousands of cookies) Workdays 1 850 26 2 1,260 24 3 510 20 4 980 18 770 22 850 23 7 14 1,050 1,550 1,350 1,000 970 680 21 9. 23 10 24 11 21 12 13 During a 46-day period when there were 120 workers, the firm produced 1,700,000 cookies. Assume that there are 100 workers employed at the beginning of month 1 and zero starting inventory. a. Find the minimum constant workforce needed to meet monthly demand. b. Assume cz= $0.10 per cookie per month, cH= $100, and cp = $200. Add columns that give the cumulative on-hand inventory and inventory cost. What is the total cost of the constant workforce plan? c. Solve for the optimal plan using linear programming. Compare your solution to b.Problem 4- do both a three period moving average and an exponential smoothing forecast with an alpha of .2. Calculate the MAD and MPE for each. Months Actuals 1 400 2. 350 3 325 4. 300 300 6. 285 7. 290
- Month Demand Forecast Error Abs Error alpha 1 20 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 27 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22 Mean Bias MAD (mean error) Problem 6: Maverick Jeans' demand manager decided to evaluate exponential smoothing. To maintain com- parability, she used the data from problem 6, copied below. 1 Month 2 3 Demand 20 18 21 25 4 5 24 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 27 22 30 23 20 29 22 Develop forecasts for months 5-12. Calculate the Bias and MAD. Use a starting forecast of 20 for month 4 and an alpha value of 0.2. (Note: Adjust all cell values to two decimal points.)Given November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72Q4 ABC University wants to develop forecasts for next year's quarterly enrollment. It has collected quarterly enrollments for the past two years. It has also forecast total annual enrollment for next year to be 95,000 students. What is the forecast for each quarter of next year? Enrollment (in 000') Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Fall 24 25 Winter 23 22 Spring 18 19 Summer 15 17