An investor is considering a investments, A, B, which can be made now. After these investments are made he can pursue choices C, D, E and F depending on whether he chose A or B originally has developed the following decision tree to aid in his selection process. What are the correct original and subsequent decisions based on an expected monetary value criterion? AAD CAC 06 100 90 F 0.75 170 200 888 200 100 170 150
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- In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from negative to positive for each of the 10 possible bids examined. a. For each of these, use @RISKs RISKTARGET function to find the probability that Millers profit is positive. Do you believe these results should have any bearing on Millers choice of bid? b. Use @RISKs RISKPERCENTILE function to find the 10th percentile for each of these bids. Can you explain why the percentiles have the values you obtain?If a monopolist produces q units, she can charge 400 4q dollars per unit. The variable cost is 60 per unit. a. How can the monopolist maximize her profit? b. If the monopolist must pay a sales tax of 5% of the selling price per unit, will she increase or decrease production (relative to the situation with no sales tax)? c. Continuing part b, use SolverTable to see how a change in the sales tax affects the optimal solution. Let the sales tax vary from 0% to 8% in increments of 0.5%.Please show the steps by using the formula for each Salalah Methanol company management is considering three competing investment Projects Option1: Starting a unit in Sohar, Option 2: Starting a unit in Musandam and Option 3: Starting a unit in Muscat. The initialinvestment for all the projects are 11000 and the cost of capital is 4.05% Year Sohar Musandam Muscat 1 1100 2160 3225 2 3100 3260 4250 3 3800 4360 5475 4 4600 5460 6300 5 5100 6900 7000 Use the information below and help the management in choosing the most desirable Project using a. Payback period b. Discounted payback c. Net Present value d. Profitability Index. You have to suggest to the management which project to choose and why
- What will be Hale’s TV Production’s decision based on the following criteria:a. MAXIMAXb. MAXIMINc. MINIMAX REGRETd. EXPECTED VALUEe. Construct the decision tree for this problem and indicate the decision based on the decision tree analysis.can you pls answer letter a,b,cImagine you have K 6.5 million at your disposal to invest in your various options of investments. However, you have no indication on how to effectively go about it and accordingly make a quality decision, but you have some indistinct ideas. One option available to you is to build a block of flats or invest this lump sum in undisclosed type of investments. You are also privy to the fact that building flats will yield the same returns if you invested in these other unrevealed investment options available over same life span [you will need to mention them in (d)]. Assuming in the economy you are domiciled in, the prevailing interest rates are pegged at 35 percent and to complete a block of flats it will take you 3 years, of which inflation is at 25 percent. Further you should note that other factors of investment are only varied in long run to increase your available lump sum of investment, which may be constrained by the rising inflation as time rolls on. 1. From your calculations and…9. A decision-maker has two alternative courses of action, A1 and A2. There are three possible states of nature, S1, S2, and S3. The table of conditional profits, as well as the probabilities for the states of nature, appear below. Based on this decision table, which decision alternative produces the higher EMV? States of Nature Alternatives S1 S2 S3 A1 10,000 20,000 6,000 A2 5,000 30,000 15,000 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 Part 2 The best decision is ▼ a. alternative Upper A 1alternative A1 b. alternative Upper A 2alternative A2 , with an EMV=$________(enter your response as a whole number).
- Suppose that a decision is faced with three decision alternatives and four states of nature.The following profit payoff table is constructed: ALTERNATIVES STATE OF NATURE S1 S2 S3 S4 A1 18 12 15 8 A2 15 14 10 11 A3 13 16 19 15 Assuming that the decision maker has no knowledge about the probabilities of occurrenceof the four states of nature, find the decisions to be recommended under each of thefollowing criteria:i. Maximin criterionii. Maximax criterioniii. Minimax Reject criterioniv. Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.6The alternatives shown are to be compared on the basis of their present worth values. At an interest rate of 8% per year, the values of n that you should use in the uniform series factors to make a correct comparison by the present worth method are: Alternative(A) Alternative (B) -25,000 -10,000 10,000 First Cost M&O cost/year 3,000 Salvage value 6,000 -2,000 Life 4 O A n 4 years for A and n =4 years for B OB. None of the above O C. n = 4 years for A and n =3 years for B O D. n = 12 years for A and n = 12 years for B1. Explain the meaning of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in this problem. Based on the results of (iii) and (iv), which investment would you choose? 2. Compute the coefficient of variation, the return-to-risk ratio (RTRR) for each investment. Based on (vii) and (viii), what investment would you choose? Compare the results of (vi) and (ix) and explain any differences
- Question 2 An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Bonanza(B) Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. $200 m $0 0.4 Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 0.1…1. Andre and Zac run a salad shop called "Healthy from A to Z". They need to make the salads a day before so they have to decide how many salads to make in advance each day before they know the actual demand. Their choice is between 45, 55 and 65 salads. The following table shows their profit or loss/ payoff table. Amount in Php. Determine the optical decision alternative for the four types of criteria. For Criterion of Realism, consider an index of optimism at α=65%.After a successful newspaper business, Jimmy plans to expand by opening an icrecream shop, only if there is a good chance of making a profit. He can open a small shop, a large shop, or no shop at all. Bulding leases are five years long so he wants to make a good decision. Jimmy has done some market research and has found with a large shop he will earn $60 000 in a good market but will lose $40 000 if the market is bad. A small shop will earn him thirty thousand dollars in a good market but will lose ten thousand dollars in a bad market. Present indications are that there is a fifty-nice percent chance of a good market. Jimmy also has the option of hiring his friend for five thousand dollars to conduct a marketing research study. If the study is conducted. With the survey, there is a sixty percent probability that it will be favourable. Also, there is a ninety percent chance of a good market if the survey is favourable. However, there is also twelve percent probability of a good market…