An explosion at a construction site could haveoccurred as the result of static electricity, malfunctioningof equipment, carelessness, or sabotage. Interviews withconstruction engineers analyzing the risks involved ledto the estimates that such an explosion would occur withprobability 0.25 as a result of static electricity, 0.20 as aresult of malfunctioning of equipment, 0.40 as a result ofcarelessness, and 0.75 as a result of sabotage. It is alsofelt that the prior probabilities of the four causes of theexplosion are 0.20, 0.40, 0.25, and 0.15. Based on all thisinformation, what is(a) the most likely cause of the explosion;(b) the least likely cause of the explosion?
An explosion at a construction site could have
occurred as the result of static electricity, malfunctioning
of equipment, carelessness, or sabotage. Interviews with
construction engineers analyzing the risks involved led
to the estimates that such an explosion would occur with
probability 0.25 as a result of static electricity, 0.20 as a
result of malfunctioning of equipment, 0.40 as a result of
carelessness, and 0.75 as a result of sabotage. It is also
felt that the prior probabilities of the four causes of the
explosion are 0.20, 0.40, 0.25, and 0.15. Based on all this
information, what is
(a) the most likely cause of the explosion;
(b) the least likely cause of the explosion?
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