Amid growing concerns that a virus outbreak from Asia will turn to a global pandemic, Ivan the Investor is weighing his options of investing in energy markets, airlines/travel, or emerging technologies such as companies specializing in video conferencing. Ivan sees the near future as bringing one of three possibilities: the virus will be controlled and will not spread globally; there we will be a short term global pandemic that causes disruptions in the immediate future, but will then be controlled within 18–24 months; there will be a global pandemic that causes long-term disruptions for longer than two years. On the basis of past experience, the Ivan estimates the following rates of return (measured in annual interest rates) for each eventuality. Future Virus is Controlled Short-term Pandemic Long-term Pandemic Investor Energy Markets Travel 8% 5% 0% -5% 6% -5% -8% 10% Technology Sector 4%

Amid growing concerns that a virus outbreak from Asia will turn to a global pandemic, Ivan the Investor is weighing his options of investing in energy markets, airlines/travel, or emerging technologies such as companies specializing in video conferencing. Ivan sees the near future as bringing one of three possibilities: the virus will be controlled and will not spread globally; there we will be a short term global pandemic that causes disruptions in the immediate future, but will then be controlled within 18–24 months; there will be a global pandemic that causes long-term disruptions for longer than two years. On the basis of past experience, the Ivan estimates the following rates of return (measured in annual interest rates) for each eventuality. Future Virus is Controlled Short-term Pandemic Long-term Pandemic Investor Energy Markets Travel 8% 5% 0% -5% 6% -5% -8% 10% Technology Sector 4%

Microeconomic Theory

12th Edition

ISBN:9781337517942

Author:NICHOLSON

Publisher:NICHOLSON

Chapter7: Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 7.8P

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You live in an area that has a possibility of incurring a massive earthquake, so you are considering buyingearthquake insurance on your home at an annual cost of $180. The probability of an earthquake damagingyour home during one year is 0.001. If this happens, you estimate that the cost of the damage (fully coveredby earthquake insurance) will be $160,000. Your total assets (including your home) are worth $250,000.
Say there are two individuals; Hala and Anna who are deciding on either to buy health insurance on a pooling arrangement basis or otherwise. Both face a 30% probability of losing RM40 on medical services and 70% of losing nothing. With these information discuss whether Hala and Anna should join this arrangement or pay the medical services costs out of their own pocket money.
Lukas is a risk-averse farmer. He grows barley on his 1000 acre farm. In a typical year his farm yields 100 bushels of barley per acre. However, in a wet season, the farm only yields 40 bushels per acre. The probability of a typical season is 0.8 and of a wet season is 0.2. Regardless of the productivity of his farm, he expects to earn $3 per bushel (net of all costs of farming). Assume that Lukas has no other income. Write an expression for Lukas's expected utility.
Suppose that you graduate from college next year and you have two career options: 1) You will start a job in an investment bank paying a $100,000 annual salary. 2) You will start a Ph.D. in economics and, as a student, you will receive a $20,000 salary. You are bad with decisions, so you are letting a friend of yours decide for you by flipping a coin. The probabilities of options 1 and 2 are, therefore, each 50%. a) Illustrate, using indifference curves, your preferences regarding consumption choices in the two different states of the world. Assume that you are risk-averse. [Include also the 45 degrees line in your figure] b) Now show how the indifference curves would change if you were substantially more risk averse than before. Explain. c) Now show the indifference curves if you are risk neutral and if you are risk loving. d) Show your expected utility preferences from point a) mathematically.
You and your roomate are deciding whether to go to a party or not on Friday. Going to the party is fun and gives a benefit of 4. If you go to the party, there is a 50% chance you will get covid. If you do not attend the party but your roommate does and gets covid, there is 80% chance that you will get covid. The impact of getting covid is -10. If both of you stay home, you will not be exposed to covid and will not have fun, leading to a payoff of 0 for both of you. 3. Construct a game matrix based on the description above and find any (c) Nash equilibria. How would your answer change if one roomate was less social and enjoyed (d) partying less than the other? Change the payoff matrix in a way that is both consistent with one roommate being less social than the other and changes the prediction you found in (a). (Note: if you found multiple possible equilibria in (a), changing the outcome could mean either making one of your prior Nash equilbria the only Nash equilibrium or making an…
When playing roulette at a casino, a gambler is trying to decide whether to bet $10 on the number 30 or to bet $10 that the outcome is any one of the three possibilities 00, 0, or 1. 3 The gambler knows that the expected value of the $10 bet for a single number is - 53¢. For the $10 bet that the outcome is 00, 0, or 1, there is a probability of 38 of making a net profit of $30 and a probability of losing $10. 35 38 a. Find the expected value for the $10 bet that the outcome is 00, 0, or 1. b. Which bet is better: a $10 bet on the number 30 or a $10 bet that the outcome is any one of the numbers 00, 0, or 1? Why? a. The expected value is $. (Round to the nearest cent as needed.) b. Since the expected value of the bet on the number 30 is C than the expected value for the bet that the outcome is 00, 0, or 1, the bet on is better.
Tasha is planning to invest in a farming project in 2022, but has a reservation given the different forecast (declined (D),the average (A) and takeoff (T)of the economy. She uses the following to guide her decision making. (i) there is 25% chance she will invest if there is a forecast of declined (ii) there is a 75% chance she will invest if there is a forecast of average growth and (iii) there is a 55% chance of investing if there is a forecast that economy will takeoff. Tashanna believes that for 2022 there is a 20% chance of decline and a 40% chance of average growth and a 40% chance the economy will take off. Based on these probabilities what is the chance that Tattiana will invest in the farming project if the stated forecast hold?
Two partners start a business. Each has two possible strategies, spend full time or secretly take a second job and spend only part time on the business. Any profits that the business makes will be split equally between the two partners, regardless of whether they work full time or part time for the business. If a partner takes a second job, he will earn $20,000 from this job plus his share of profits from the business. If he spends full time on the business, his only source of income is his share of profits from this business. If both partners spend full time on the business, total profits will be $200,000. If one partner spends full time on the business and the other takes a second job, the business profits will be $80,000. If both partners take second job, the total business profits are $20,000. a) This game has no pure strategy Nash equilibria, but has a mixed strategy equilibrium. b) This game has two Nash equilibria, one in which each partner has an income of $100,000 and one in…
1. Mr. Smith can cause an accident, which entails a monetary loss of $1000 to Ms. Adams. The likelihood of the accident depends on the precaution decisions by both individuals. Specifically, each individual can choose either "low" or "high" precaution, with the low precaution requiring no cost and the high precaution requiring the effort cost of $200 to the individual who chooses the high precaution. The following table describes the probability of an accident for each combination of the precaution choices by the two individuals. Adams chooses low precaution Adams chooses high precaution Smith chooses low precaution Smith chooses high precaution 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.1 1) What is the socially efficient outcome? For each of the following tort rules, (i) construct a table describing the individuals' payoffs under different precaution pairs and (ii) find the equilibrium precaution choices by the individuals. 2) a) No liability b) Strict liability (with full compensation) c) Negligence rule (with…
Amy must decide whether or not to make an investment that costs 1. The investment pays a return of 5, but is risky to Amy because Bill must be given charge of the asset if it is to be productive. If Amy invests, then Bill must decide whether to keep the entire return for himself, or to split the return, giving 3 to Amy and keeping 2 for himself. (Amy pays the cost 1 even if Bill does not pay her back.) If Amy does not invest, then both players get 0. This is called a trust game because Amy wants to invest only if she trusts Bill to pay her back. (a) Model this as an extensive-form game (b) What is the strategic-form corresponding to your extensive-form? (c) Find all of the Nash equilibria. Which are the subgame-perfect?
You are considering a $500,000 investment in the fast-food industry and have narrowed your choice to either a McDonald's or a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise. McDonald's indicates that, based on the location where you are proposing to open a new restaurant, there is a 25 percent probability that aggregate 10-year profits (net of the initial investment) will be $16 million, a 50 percent probability that profits will be $8 million, and a 25 percent probability that profits will be -$1.6 million. The aggregate 10-year profit projections (net of the initial investment) for a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise is $48 million with a 2.5 percent probability, $8 million with a 95 percent probability, and -$48 million with a 2.5 percent probability. Considering both the risk and expected profitability of these two investment opportunities, which is the better investment? Explain carefully.
2 Scenario Your client, InsureCorp, is an insurance company considering launching an 'income insur- ance' product in the nation of Motherland. Income insurance is a product that fully insures a household against changes in income caused by a major injury or illness. At present, no businesses are selling income insurance products in Motherland. Initial market research suggests that there are 15,000 households in Motherland interested in purchasing income insurance. Your client expects that the fixed cost of launching the income insurance product will be $25,000,000 per year, and that each policy issued to a customer will cost the company an additional $2,000 in sales commissions. 2.1 Your task Your client wants you to analyse the potential market for income insurance and report on the following: What is the maximum price the company can charge a household for an income insurance policy? What is the expected profit (or loss) for the company if it becomes a monopoly provider of income…