A lightbulb manufacturer ships large consignments of lightbulbs to big industrial users. The production process is functions correctly 90% of the time. When production is correct, then only 25% of all bulbs produced are defective. However, the process is susceptible to an occasional malfunction, leading to a defective rate of 60%. If a defective bulb is found, what is the probability that the process is functioning correctly? NOTE: This problem asks you to use Bayes Theorem. I know this is a Bayes problem because I am given evidence (a bulb is defective bulb) and am asked to update the prior probabilities with this new information. Prior probability the proceess functioning correctly P(C) = 0.90 Prior probabilty it is not working correctly P(NC) = 0.10 The conditional probabilty that I find a defective part if the process is functioning correctly is P(DIC) = 0.25 Draw a tree diagram and label the branches. (Because there are only 2 events, you can also use a bivariate table to solve.) OA 0.944 B. 0.789

A lightbulb manufacturer ships large consignments of lightbulbs to big industrial users. The production process is functions correctly 90% of the time. When production is correct, then only 25% of all bulbs produced are defective. However, the process is susceptible to an occasional malfunction, leading to a defective rate of 60%. If a defective bulb is found, what is the probability that the process is functioning correctly? NOTE: This problem asks you to use Bayes Theorem. I know this is a Bayes problem because I am given evidence (a bulb is defective bulb) and am asked to update the prior probabilities with this new information. Prior probability the proceess functioning correctly P(C) = 0.90 Prior probabilty it is not working correctly P(NC) = 0.10 The conditional probabilty that I find a defective part if the process is functioning correctly is P(DIC) = 0.25 Draw a tree diagram and label the branches. (Because there are only 2 events, you can also use a bivariate table to solve.) OA 0.944 B. 0.789

Calculus For The Life Sciences

2nd Edition

ISBN:9780321964038

Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.

Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.

Chapter1: Functions

Section1.EA: Extended Application Using Extrapolation To Predict Life Expectancy

Problem 2EA

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