A borrower takes out a 30-year adjustable rate mortgage loan for $200,000 with monthly payments. The first two years of the loan have a "teaser" rate of 4 percent, after that the rate can reset with a 5 percent annual payment cap. On the reset date, the composite rate is 6 percent. Assume that the loan allows for negative amortization. What would be the outstanding balance on the loan at the end of Year 3? Multiple Choice $192,926 $190,074 $192,812 $192,337

A borrower takes out a 30-year adjustable rate mortgage loan for $200,000 with monthly payments. The first two years of the loan have a "teaser" rate of 4 percent, after that the rate can reset with a 5 percent annual payment cap. On the reset date, the composite rate is 6 percent. Assume that the loan allows for negative amortization. What would be the outstanding balance on the loan at the end of Year 3? Multiple Choice $192,926 $190,074 $192,812 $192,337

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 48P: Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has beaten the Standard and Poors 500 during 11 of...

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A martingale betting strategy works as follows. You begin with a certain amount of money and repeatedly play a game in which you have a 40% chance of winning any bet. In the first game, you bet 1. From then on, every time you win a bet, you bet 1 the next time. Each time you lose, you double your previous bet. Currently you have 63. Assuming you have unlimited credit, so that you can bet more money than you have, use simulation to estimate the profit or loss you will have after playing the game 50 times.
It is January 1 of year 0, and Merck is trying to determine whether to continue development of a new drug. The following information is relevant. You can assume that all cash flows occur at the ends of the respective years. Clinical trials (the trials where the drug is tested on humans) are equally likely to be completed in year 1 or 2. There is an 80% chance that clinical trials will succeed. If these trials fail, the FDA will not allow the drug to be marketed. The cost of clinical trials is assumed to follow a triangular distribution with best case 100 million, most likely case 150 million, and worst case 250 million. Clinical trial costs are incurred at the end of the year clinical trials are completed. If clinical trials succeed, the drug will be sold for five years, earning a profit of 6 per unit sold. If clinical trials succeed, a plant will be built during the same year trials are completed. The cost of the plant is assumed to follow a triangular distribution with best case 1 billion, most likely case 1.5 billion, and worst case 2.5 billion. The plant cost will be depreciated on a straight-line basis during the five years of sales. Sales begin the year after successful clinical trials. Of course, if the clinical trials fail, there are no sales. During the first year of sales, Merck believe sales will be between 100 million and 200 million units. Sales of 140 million units are assumed to be three times as likely as sales of 120 million units, and sales of 160 million units are assumed to be twice as likely as sales of 120 million units. Merck assumes that for years 2 to 5 that the drug is on the market, the growth rate will be the same each year. The annual growth in sales will be between 5% and 15%. There is a 25% chance that the annual growth will be 7% or less, a 50% chance that it will be 9% or less, and a 75% chance that it will be 12% or less. Cash flows are discounted 15% per year, and the tax rate is 40%. Use simulation to model Mercks situation. Based on the simulation output, would you recommend that Merck continue developing? Explain your reasoning. What are the three key drivers of the projects NPV? (Hint: The way the uncertainty about the first year sales is stated suggests using the General distribution, implemented with the RISKGENERAL function. Similarly, the way the uncertainty about the annual growth rate is stated suggests using the Cumul distribution, implemented with the RISKCUMUL function. Look these functions up in @RISKs online help.)
A project does not necessarily have a unique IRR. (Refer to the previous problem for more information on IRR.) Show that a project with the following cash flows has two IRRs: year 1, 20; year 2, 82; year 3, 60; year 4, 2. (Note: It can be shown that if the cash flow of a project changes sign only once, the project is guaranteed to have a unique IRR.)
The IRR is the discount rate r that makes a project have an NPV of 0. You can find IRR in Excel with the built-in IRR function, using the syntax =IRR(range of cash flows). However, it can be tricky. In fact, if the IRR is not near 10%, this function might not find an answer, and you would get an error message. Then you must try the syntax =IRR(range of cash flows, guess), where guess" is your best guess for the IRR. It is best to try a range of guesses (say, 90% to 100%). Find the IRR of the project described in Problem 34. 34. Consider a project with the following cash flows: year 1, 400; year 2, 200; year 3, 600; year 4, 900; year 5, 1000; year 6, 250; year 7, 230. Assume a discount rate of 15% per year. a. Find the projects NPV if cash flows occur at the ends of the respective years. b. Find the projects NPV if cash flows occur at the beginnings of the respective years. c. Find the projects NPV if cash flows occur at the middles of the respective years.
Based on Marcus (1990). The Balboa mutual fund has beaten the Standard and Poors 500 during 11 of the last 13 years. People use this as an argument that you can beat the market. Here is another way to look at it that shows that Balboas beating the market 11 out of 13 times is not unusual. Consider 50 mutual funds, each of which has a 50% chance of beating the market during a given year. Use simulation to estimate the probability that over a 13-year period the best of the 50 mutual funds will beat the market for at least 11 out of 13 years. This probability turns out to exceed 40%, which means that the best mutual fund beating the market 11 out of 13 years is not an unusual occurrence after all.
Big Hit Video must determine how many copies of a new video to purchase. Assume that the companys goal is to purchase a number of copies that maximizes its expected profit from the video during the next year. Describe how you would use simulation to shed light on this problem. Assume that each time a video is rented, it is rented for one day.
If $ 650 is deposited at the end of each quarter into an account paying 11% compounded quarterly, how much money will be in that account after 6 years? Round your answer to two digits!
An annuity pays $25,000 semiannually (every 6 months) for 12 years. An alternative investment’s APR is 10% with quarterly compounding. What is the value of this annuity?
A borrower took out a $1,450,000 30-year fully amortizing conforming adjustable rate mortgage loan with an index of the one year U.S. Treasury and a 2.5% margin from the Wells Fargo Bank to buy a condo in Park City, Utah. The loan has a teaser rate of 1.5% for the first year, after which the interest rate resets annually with 2% annual and 6% lifetime interest rate increase caps, and the lender charges a one point loan origination fee and an additional $540 in closing costs to the borrower that are deducted from the loan proceeds at closing. On the first reset date, the one year U.S. Treasury rate was 4.75%. What would be the monthly payment for the second loan year? $6,511.15 $5,004.25 $6,337.97 $6,461.99
A borrower took out a $1,450,000 30-year fully amortizing conforming adjustable rate mortgage loan with an index of the one year U.S. Treasury and a 2.5% margin from the Wells Fargo Bank to buy a condo in Park City, Utah. The loan has a teaser rate of 1.5% for the first year, after which the interest rate resets annually with 2% annual and 6% lifetime interest rate increase caps, and the lender charges a one point loan origination fee and an additional $540 in closing costs to the borrower that are deducted from the loan proceeds at closing. At the time of loan origination, the one year U.S. Treasury rate is 1.25%. What would be the monthly payment for the first loan year? $5,004.24 $6,715.18 $5,259.25 $4,832.15
A borrower took out a $1,450,000 30-year fully amortizing conforming adjustable rate mortgage loan with an index of the one year U.S. Treasury and a 2.5% margin from the Wells Fargo Bank to buy a condo in Park City, Utah. The loan has a teaser rate of 1.5% for the first year, after which the interest rate resets annually with 2% annual and 6% lifetime interest rate increase caps, and the lender charges a one point loan origination fee and an additional $540 in closing costs to the borrower that are deducted from the loan proceeds at closing. At the time of loan origination, the one year U.S. Treasury rate is 1.25%. What would be the monthly payment for the first loan year? a. $5,004.24 b.$6,715.18 c. $5,259.25 d. $4,832.15
Imagine that you run a business that manufactures a unique medical product. The potential demand for the product is very short lived and uncertain. Your production cycle is very long, which means you need to have the products ready in advance. If the demand for your product arises (only 30% chance), they will be sold well; if not, the products will remain unsold and you will need to liquidate them for $500 each. You predict that the demand will be normally distributed with mean= 15000 and standard deviation= 7000. The production cost of your product is, on average, $5500. You will sell your product for $12500. Suppose you make 18000 products, and you get lucky and demand will occur this year. What is your expected profit?