1. Construct an exponential smoothing model for the Amazon Revenue Data. a. Use 0.7 as the smoothing constant and b. 7,131 as the initial value C. What is your prediction for Q1, 2021? d. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for this time series model. 2. Construct a moving average model (k=3) for the Amazon Revenue Data. 3. Compare the smoothing and moving average models. Which is more accurate? A B C 20 12345690022===≈ Year Quarter Revenue 2010 1 7,131.00 2010 2 6,566.00 2010 3 7,560.00 2010 4 12,947.00 2011 1 9,857.00 7 2011 2 9,913.00 8 2011 3 10,876.00 2011 4 17,431.00 10 2012 1 13,185.00 11 2012 2 12,834.00 12 2012 3 13,806.00 13 2012 4 21,268.00 14 2013 1 16,070.00 15 2013 2 15,704.00 16 2013 3 17,091.00 17 2013 4 25,587.00 18 2014 1 19,741.00 19 2014 2 19,340.00 20 2014 3 20,578.00 21 2014 4 29,329.00 22 2015 1 22,717.00 23 2015 2 23,184.00 24 2015 3 25,358.00 25 2015 4 35,747.00 26 2016 1 29,128.00 27 2016 2 30,404.00 28 2016 3 32,714.00 29 2016 4 43,741.00 30 2017 1 35,714.00 31 2017 2 37,955.00 32 2017 3 43,744.00 33 2017 4 60,453.00 34 2018 1 51,042.00 35 2018 2 52,886.00 36 2018 3 56,576.00 37 2018 4 72,383.00 38 2019 1 59,700.00 39 2019 2 63,404.00 40 2019 3 69,982.00 41 2019 4 87,436.00 42 2020 1 75,452.00 43 2020 2 88,912.00 44 2020 3 96,145.00 45 2020 4 125,555.00
1. Construct an exponential smoothing model for the Amazon Revenue Data. a. Use 0.7 as the smoothing constant and b. 7,131 as the initial value C. What is your prediction for Q1, 2021? d. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for this time series model. 2. Construct a moving average model (k=3) for the Amazon Revenue Data. 3. Compare the smoothing and moving average models. Which is more accurate? A B C 20 12345690022===≈ Year Quarter Revenue 2010 1 7,131.00 2010 2 6,566.00 2010 3 7,560.00 2010 4 12,947.00 2011 1 9,857.00 7 2011 2 9,913.00 8 2011 3 10,876.00 2011 4 17,431.00 10 2012 1 13,185.00 11 2012 2 12,834.00 12 2012 3 13,806.00 13 2012 4 21,268.00 14 2013 1 16,070.00 15 2013 2 15,704.00 16 2013 3 17,091.00 17 2013 4 25,587.00 18 2014 1 19,741.00 19 2014 2 19,340.00 20 2014 3 20,578.00 21 2014 4 29,329.00 22 2015 1 22,717.00 23 2015 2 23,184.00 24 2015 3 25,358.00 25 2015 4 35,747.00 26 2016 1 29,128.00 27 2016 2 30,404.00 28 2016 3 32,714.00 29 2016 4 43,741.00 30 2017 1 35,714.00 31 2017 2 37,955.00 32 2017 3 43,744.00 33 2017 4 60,453.00 34 2018 1 51,042.00 35 2018 2 52,886.00 36 2018 3 56,576.00 37 2018 4 72,383.00 38 2019 1 59,700.00 39 2019 2 63,404.00 40 2019 3 69,982.00 41 2019 4 87,436.00 42 2020 1 75,452.00 43 2020 2 88,912.00 44 2020 3 96,145.00 45 2020 4 125,555.00
Chapter1: Taking Risks And Making Profits Within The Dynamic Business Environment
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1CE
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Transcribed Image Text:1. Construct an exponential smoothing model for the Amazon Revenue Data.
a.
Use 0.7 as the smoothing constant and
b. 7,131 as the initial value
C.
What is your prediction for Q1, 2021?
d. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for this time series model.
2. Construct a moving average model (k=3) for the Amazon Revenue Data.
3. Compare the smoothing and moving average models. Which is more accurate?
Transcribed Image Text:A B
C
20
12345690022===≈
Year Quarter
Revenue
2010
1
7,131.00
2010
2
6,566.00
2010
3
7,560.00
2010
4
12,947.00
2011
1
9,857.00
7
2011
2
9,913.00
8 2011 3
10,876.00
2011
4
17,431.00
10
2012 1
13,185.00
11
2012
2
12,834.00
12
2012
3
13,806.00
13
2012
4
21,268.00
14
2013
1
16,070.00
15
2013 2
15,704.00
16 2013 3
17,091.00
17 2013 4
25,587.00
18 2014 1
19,741.00
19 2014 2
19,340.00
20 2014 3
20,578.00
21 2014 4
29,329.00
22 2015 1
22,717.00
23 2015 2
23,184.00
24 2015 3
25,358.00
25 2015 4
35,747.00
26 2016 1
29,128.00
27 2016 2
30,404.00
28 2016 3
32,714.00
29 2016 4
43,741.00
30 2017 1
35,714.00
31 2017 2
37,955.00
32 2017 3
43,744.00
33 2017 4
60,453.00
34 2018
1
51,042.00
35 2018
2
52,886.00
36 2018 3
56,576.00
37 2018 4
72,383.00
38 2019
1
59,700.00
39 2019
2
63,404.00
40 2019
3
69,982.00
41 2019
4
87,436.00
42 2020
1
75,452.00
43 2020
2
88,912.00
44 2020
3
96,145.00
45
2020
4
125,555.00
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