4. Quarterly demand for smartphones at a retailer is as shown. After obtaining initial estimates for level, trend, and seasonal factors, forecast quarterly demand for year 5 using Winter's model with alpha=0.05, beta = 0.10, and gamma = 0.15. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, and MSE for the forecast. Can you find values of a, ß, and, y that result in a lower MAD or MSE? Year 1 2 3 st 4 Quarter I || ||| IV 1 || ||| IV 1 || ||| IV I || IV Demand 513 932 1,509 1,902 693 1,163 1,857 2,469 846 1,439 2,271 3,079 1,070 1,751 2,785 3,613
4. Quarterly demand for smartphones at a retailer is as shown. After obtaining initial estimates for level, trend, and seasonal factors, forecast quarterly demand for year 5 using Winter's model with alpha=0.05, beta = 0.10, and gamma = 0.15. Evaluate the MAD, MAPE, and MSE for the forecast. Can you find values of a, ß, and, y that result in a lower MAD or MSE? Year 1 2 3 st 4 Quarter I || ||| IV 1 || ||| IV 1 || ||| IV I || IV Demand 513 932 1,509 1,902 693 1,163 1,857 2,469 846 1,439 2,271 3,079 1,070 1,751 2,785 3,613
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 29P: The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building...
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VIEWStep 3 Calculate the forecast using Winter's method
VIEWStep 4 Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE
VIEWStep 5 Use Solver to find the lower value of MAD
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