10. A virus is found to exist in N different strains and in each generation either stays the same or mutates into another strain with probability p/(N – 1). Show that the probability that the strain in the n-th generation is the same as that at time zero is 1 pN - - N N N | Hint: Model this as a 2-state Markov process with the two states being "initial strain" and "other strain".]

Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry
13th Edition
ISBN:9781133382119
Author:Swokowski
Publisher:Swokowski
Chapter10: Sequences, Series, And Probability
Section10.8: Probability
Problem 31E
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10. A virus is found to exist in N different strains and in each generation
either stays the same or mutates into another strain with probability
p/(N – 1). Show that the probability that the strain in the n-th
generation is the same as that at time zero is
1
+
N
pN
-
N
N – 1
-
[Hint: Model this as a 2-state Markov process with the two states
being "initial strain" and "other strain".]
Transcribed Image Text:10. A virus is found to exist in N different strains and in each generation either stays the same or mutates into another strain with probability p/(N – 1). Show that the probability that the strain in the n-th generation is the same as that at time zero is 1 + N pN - N N – 1 - [Hint: Model this as a 2-state Markov process with the two states being "initial strain" and "other strain".]
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