RISK CASE STUDY – ASSIGNEMENT 2
August 3, 20111
THE SPACE SHUTTLE CHALLENGER DISASTER
Risk Management Plan 1. Risk management plan summarizes risk management approach, list methodologies and processes, defines everyone’s role – definition of risk management plan. NASA was using for the most part qualitative risk assessment process. Launch of the shuttle was allowed as long as aggregate risk remained acceptable. Quantitive method was applied for risk assessment because if the complex procedures (like data gathering) were in place NASA would be buried with paperwork.
NASA’s culture was flying with acceptable risk.
There was Risk Management Plan in place for NASA because there was risk assessment and protocols in place but due
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In majority of cases risk assessment process was qualitative. If aggregate risk remained acceptable launch should happen. Hazard were analyzed and subjected to formalized hazard reduction process I in NASA handbook. Quantitative method of risk assessment was not applied because they were expensive and time consuming. Technical experts were not involved enough in any of the discussions.
7. In order to resolve any differences we need to list them and quantify them first which never happened in case of Challenger. Customer is always right and ultimately his decision overrules but contactor must provide as accurate data as possible based on analysis. Every recognized risk has different weight and some of them thru brainstorming can be resolved or even eliminated.
8. Upper management needs to be committed to project of such a huge scale and support it. They should be informed about individual risks and it is up to project manager to provide true information about project. It seems that culture of NASA accepted waiver as a way to determine acceptable risk and considered then as a part of official protocol.
9. Risk associated with any chosen method should be classified based on cost (budget), safety and technology (design) and overall impact on the mission. Challenger did not have either solid political support or direction. Cost became the most critical component in decision making. Sold fuel systems were cheaper but also less safe. They
risks and determine the likelihood and consequence of that risk occurring during the project. The
Rockwell, the shuttle’s primary contractor, did not support the launch due to the possibility of ice leaving the structure and damaging the thermal shield tiles during takeoff. Their concerns were relayed to NASA, but in such a way that NASA chose to proceed with the launch [2]. Though this was eventually determined to be a non-issue in the Challenger launch, the true nature of the problems that can occur when an object strikes the shuttle during takeoff would not be learned until 2003, when the space shuttle Columbia disintegrated on re-entry due to damage of a heat shield tile that occurred during takeoff [2]--[3].
To get a better handle on the options and the risks associated with them, the company estimates the severity of each event and calculates the level of risk (based on severity of the event and the probability of occurrence). The events are then ranked with those exhibiting the highest risks placed at the top of the list. Next, the source of high-risk events is investigated.
The memo written by Roger Boisjoly of Morton Thiokol, Inc. regarding the Challenger explosion had a very direct approach with a condescending tone. The author does an excellent job at grabbing the reader’s attention. The subject line states “SRM O-Ring Erosion/Potential Failure Criticality”. With a subject line written in that manner, it stresses the urgency of the memo. In the first paragraph, of the memo the author states that the memo is written to address the seriousness of the current O-ring erosion problem. Again, this is stressing the urgency of the memo and states his purpose for publishing the memo. In the body of the memo, Mr. Boisjoly takes on a more condescending, non-professional tone. He makes two statements that could be taken as if he was questioning authority. First, “The mistakenly accepted position on the joint problem was to fly without fear and failure and to run a series of design evaluations which would ultimately lead to a solution or at least a significant reduction of the erosion problem”. This statement seems as if he does not respect the authority of the company leaders, and the decision they
The article includes background information on the event as well as many quotes from people who followed the Challenger mission and remember the tragedy. Many of the quotes express the viewer’s shock at the disaster while others convey a sense of loss. The article also touches on the complacency of NASA leading up to the disaster and refers to a quote which states that “one of the biggest outcomes from the tragedy was the recommendation that NASA needed a stronger safety organization.”
A timeline of the events leading up to the explosion of the Challenger Space shuttle:
* There are three (3) schools of thought regarding risk. The first considers the positive and negative aspects of risk, but sees them as separate. The second group believes that there are benefits from treating threats and opportunities together, while the third school does not label uncertainties, but addresses uncertainty as part of “doing the job.” Argue the value of having a risk strategy despite the cost associated with it. Include an example to support
Hazards exist in all environments, are present in all activities, and a hazard, as it relates to our assessment of the Special Activities Command (SAC), creates a condition that has the potential for mission degradation (ATP 5-19, 2014, p. 1-4). After the hazards have are identified, Step two in the RM processes involves assigning a level of risk to these hazards by estimating probability and severity of loss linked to risk (DA Pam 385-30, 2014, p. 6). Probability is the likelihood of a hazard scenario occurring and severity is the approximation of harm given the scenario occurring (DA Pam 385-30, 2014, p. 6). Although probability and severity are both considered in assessing hazards they are independent of one another or in other words, when estimating probability, it has no direct relationship to
Risk assessment is about identifying the risks and putting things in place to reduce or remove the risks.
Space exploration is as close to pure risk as any of us can conceive. A rocket blows upon launch or it doesn’t. A space craft reaches its destination planet or it doesn’t. The craft lands safely on the planet surface or it doesn’t. We can easily envision these risks, and this makes the process of managing them relatively transparent. Even better, the risk management jargon needed to understand the risk management process is minimal. Mostly, this case requires a thorough reading and some deep thinking. What better way to introduce good risk management than with such a transparent example.
Unfortunately, there is always risk when it comes to space flight. This makes it difficult to determine what constitutes an “Acceptable” risk. A space agency has many worries such as their reputation with the public and the world, the success of their missions, and most importantly the lives of their staff and astronauts. Engineers are usually technically gifted but lacking in organization. This spawns a need for non-technical managers to oversee the day to day operations of projects and companies. While the engineers worry about the functionality of the project (in this case, a space shuttle), the managers worry about the cost to the company and the infamous pick 2 triangle of good, cheap, fast. This causes a disconnect between the engineers and the management where pressure from anything whether it be the public or CEO, can cause concerns to be overlooked.
Definition: A Risk is an unwanted situation which might arise in an organization which might lead to negative impact on the desired result. Risk management plans involves the analyzing, managing and evaluating the projects risk and threats. It involves layout of the entire project i.e from the beginning during and after results of the project.
Yes, a quantitative and qualitative risk management system can be in place at the same time. Since the Space Shuttle Program is so large and complicated, it would be in their best interest to incorporate both quantitative and qualitative risk management evaluations together. Alone, neither system is sufficient in analyzing nor predicting all the risks involved in the program. It is the flaw of a qualitative system in that it relies too much on human opinion and instinct instead of concrete data, while a quantitative relies too heavily on
Once there has been a risk management assessment, we can know exactly what to expect and what can be done to prevent any type of risk. We will also know how to deal with any risk while it is happening to contain it.
* Catastrophic Risk: Despite flying being the safest form of traveling, catastrophic risk is attached with the aviation industry because if any unforeseen circumstances take place then major monitory damages happen. It lies in the LOW FREQUENY-HIGH SEVERITY zone. This type of risk is usually transferred to the third party through insurance. The entire commercial aircraft is insured in about $100 million to $250 million.