Journal 2
1. It has been said that forecasting using exponential smoothing is like driving a car by looking in the rear-view mirror. What are the conditions that would have to exist for driving a car that are analogous to the assumptions made when using exponential smoothing?
When driving a car, everyone knows where one should be looking. Straight ahead most of the time and with some side glances from time to time. An occasional glance into the rear-view mirror is recommended. Any quantitative forecasting method always uses historical data to make forecasts. Exponential smoothing is a method used in forecasting to eliminate the effect of any random deviations in the data trend. Also, like any forecasting method, it assumes that the
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But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.
3. When a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment bankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to a profit and loss statement. What type of forecasting information do you suppose would be required?
Whenever a business plan is made for funding, the purpose is to sell a product or service that already exists in the market and is different from that trying to market an invention. In any profit and loss statement, the difficult part is the profit part or actual revenue stream. The costs part is easy to estimate in both cases. In the first case, there will be historical data available from the existing market players while in the second case, the investor should be able to estimate what share of the market that one expects to capture. This would be either from the existing market players, or from the excess unfulfilled demand that may exist in the market. If grabbing the market
Simple exponential smoothing accounts for the previous period 's forecasting errors in order to more accurately develop the current forecast by applying a smoothing constant or response rate (Anonymous, n. d.). Exponential smoothing also
Data, the data that is currently being used in the forecasting is outdated. Using data from 2006 does not translate the current needs of customer demand. Using updated data should help with making correct estimates how much inventory should be kept on hand without causing lose in revenue.
A business plan needs to consider all the long term and short term aspects which will
The business plan is intended solely for informational purposes to assist you with a due-diligence investigation of this project. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable, but the management team makes no representations or warranties with respect to this information. The financial projects that are part of this plan represent estimates based on extensive research and on assumptions considered reasonable, but they are of course, not guaranteed. The contents of this plan are confidential and are not to be reproduced without express written consent.
The real value of doing a business plan is not having the finished product in hand; rather, the value lies in the process of research and
A hundred years ago nobody believed electric cars could exist. Now we are in 2016, and everyone in the world is thinking about how much technology has developed. We now have electric cars and no one believed that these methods of transportation would have been possible years ago. Now people look to these alternatives when they want to buy a car. Some people believe that electric cars are the best and will be the future, however these cars have more cons than pros (Hasebe and Satoru 2).
Many people believe that a business plan is helpful but not necessary. This is true in the sense that business plans are helpful but, in fact, they are vital if you are serious about success in both short and long term. The aim of this paper is to evaluate and critically assess the “Room for dessert” business plan. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 will try to analyze who is the audience for the plan, what are their needs, and how well does the business plan meet those needs. Section 3 will discuss about the strengths and the weaknesses of the business idea, while the final section will present a personal opinion on the critical issues that
Many new businesses and projects fail due to not properly completing a profit analysis projection. Completing a projected profit analysis allows upper management, stakeholders, and key decision-makers to make
For a unique business concept to come to fruition it needs to start with a plan. The United States Small Business Administration, also known as SBA for short, can help prospective small business owners take their concepts and turn them into reality. “SBA was created in 1953 as an independent agency of the federal government … that helps Americans start, build and grow businesses (Mission Statement 2013).” To do this, the SBA has simplified a six section business plan that can be completed on their website and saved for future use. The six sections of the SBA business plan are: an executive summary, company overview, marketing research, product(s) and/or service(s), marking and sales, and, lastly, financial projections. Even though there are
In the technology world, the latest advancement is only as good as the next thing coming down the line. The auto industry is constantly bringing us new technologies, whether it be for safety, entertainment, usefulness or simply for pure innovation (Neiger,C.). Unless you 're an inveterate walker or a mass-transit rider, you probably spend more time in your car each week than anywhere except your workplace and your home. It’s not always pleasant. Highway gridlock, a fruitless search for a parking space or a brush with a thundering tractor-trailer can rattle all but the most Zen drivers. Things are about to get better. A
Every entrepreneur knows the value of a solid business plan, but our regional experts will build a plan that lays a solid foundation for setting up a successful company. By developing a successful road map to success, our business plan will include market analysis, research and organizational charts, financial projections, and of course a world class executive summary. Let us take a hard look at your Marketing, Operations, and Financial Plans, and set you down a pathway towards
Forecasts: Based on assumptions that are expected to exist, and that reflect actions that are expected to occur.
Forecasting is an important aspect in today's business world. Every day businesses strive or lose, depending on the successfulness and accurateness of their forecasting. For successful forecasting, the forecaster needs to have a clear understanding of the current business activities, past trends, and the company’s business strategy. Case 5 exhibits key principles on the way financial forecasting is
Of the many strategic and tactical uses of forecasting, the most critical from a cost standpoint is to mitigate risk and optimize potential revenue gains over time. The best forecasting frameworks and implementations balance risk mitigation and optimized revenue levels to stabilize the entire value chains of businesses (Hanafizadeh, Moosakhani, Bakhshi, 2009). The forecasting process over time can become an indispensable aspect of any broader strategic and knowledge management process including serving as a highly effective system of record (Kahn, Adams, 2001).
Ted Ralley (Ted), Director of marketing research for an auto spare parts company wants to ensure the highest level of accuracy for sales projections for the upcoming business year 2008. Ted is aware that forecasting can be an expensive undertaking if results are inaccurate, as such he utilized the most accessible work tool, Microsoft Excel time series forecasting method to run several forecasts using the historical sales data from the previous four years. He was however tentative about the results, as he is of the view that economic activity and oil prices plays a significant role in auto parts sales. To test his theory he has decided to generate additional forecasts using econometric variables. His forecast decisions