Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? Would you stay with your original door selection, or would you switch? Explain your reasoning. What is the probability of winning if you stay with your original door selection? What is the probability of winning if you switch to the other door, after you've been shown the door with a goat

Calculus For The Life Sciences
2nd Edition
ISBN:9780321964038
Author:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Publisher:GREENWELL, Raymond N., RITCHEY, Nathan P., Lial, Margaret L.
Chapter12: Probability
Section12.CR: Chapter 12 Review
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Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

  • Would you stay with your original door selection, or would you switch? Explain your reasoning.
  • What is the probability of winning if you stay with your original door selection?
  • What is the probability of winning if you switch to the other door, after you've been shown the door with a goat?
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