Please pick a specialized book that interests you and point to 4 examples that contain numerical data that can be used to make decisions under uncertainty. (a) Please list each item in each example. (b) Please identify (1) decision maker; (2) alternatives; (3) uncertainties in each example
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Please pick a specialized book that interests you and point to 4 examples that contain numerical data that can be used to make decisions under uncertainty.
(a) Please list each item in each example.
(b) Please identify (1) decision maker; (2) alternatives; (3) uncertainties in each example.
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- What is the best decision alternative under Maximax criterion? (Provide complete decision table solution) DIHL Co. is a Danao-based logistics company owned by Engr. Donald H. Lalican. Anticipating the growing demand for delivery services, he developed a strategic plan for the year 2022. The options are to hire additional delivery crews in their Mandaue facility, construct a new facility in Talisay City, or subcontract Ohlala Move, a small- time company. A study conducted by the marketing department forecasted the following payoff values, which are summarized in the table below. The values are expressed as gains and alpha = 0.6. States of Nature Decision Alternatives Failure Low Moderate High Hire additional Drivers in Mandaue -450,000 -250,000 250,000 500,000 Construct a facility in Talisay -800,000 -400,000 300,000 700,000 Subcontracting Ohlala Move -100,000 -10,000 150,000 300,000 Hire Additional Drivers in Mandaue Construct a Facility in Talisay O Subcontracting Ohlala Move Both…Question 2 An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Bonanza(B) Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. $200 m $0 0.4 Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 0.1…Select the least accurate statement. A) The expected monetary value (EMV) criterion represents the long-run average of uncertain outcomes, so it should only be used for recurring decisions. b) For each possible decision and each possible outcome, the payoff table lists the associated monetary value. c)The certainty equivalent is the certain dollar amount a risk-averse decision maker would accept in order to avoid a gamble altogether. D) For a risk-averse decision maker, the certainty equivalent is less than the expected monetary value (EMV).
- Describe how decision analysis is similar to and different from simulation analysis and scenario analysis (at least 75 words)Decision trees use:a) probabilities.b) payoffs.c) logic.d) options.e) all of the above.I want to answer to solve ㅠㅠㅠㅠ. Q1. A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to but and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities Cost of land $2 MillionProbability of rezoning .6If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70% chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chin for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30% chance that she can…
- (1) Although expectations play an important role, consumption and investment decisions are observed to be highly dependent on current values of disposable income and cash flows, respectively. is this true or false explain ( i give posistive rating) i need quikly thank youUsing Excel Spreadsheet and formulas for this problem (make sure cell references are unique to your table). Provide all techniques practiced previously: five (5) techniques for Decisions Making under Uncertainty, EMV, EOL, and EVPI. Use α = 0.7 for the Hurwicz. Use the .50 for the probability of a Good Economy and .50 for the probability of a Poor Economy. Show the work on an Excel file. STATE OF NATURE DECISION ALTERNATIVE GOOD ECONOMY POOR ECONOMY Sotck market 80,000 -20,000 Bonds 30,000 20,000 CDs 23,000 23,000You often hear about the trade-off between risk and reward. Is this trade-off part of decision making under uncertainty when the decision maker uses theEMV criterion? For example, how does this work in investment decisions?
- Decision making using analytics is viewed as Question 5 options: descriptive (use of data to summarize the present situation). All of these choices are correct. prescriptive (use of mathematical models to optimize decisions). predictive (use of data to predict what is likely to happen).An optimistic decision-making criterion is sometimes called: a. equally like criterion b. decision making under certainty c. maximin criterion d. maximax criterion1. Discuss the process you would employ to develop a suitable balanced scorecard for a tourist site organization and give examples of measures that would be incorporated within it. 2. Discuss how break even analysis can aid management in decision-making. 3. Discuss the practical difficulties associated with the use of breakeven analysis by managers in decision-making.