14. Given the following sequential decision tree, determine which is the optimal investment, A or B: 40 $300,000 (-$20,000) 7 30 .60 $60,000 $45,000 Investment A .70 $75,000 20 $200,000 (-S70,000) (-$17,000) 80 $70,000 $60,000 .15 35 $105,000 (-$9,000) .65 $40,000 Investment B (-$50,000) .55 3 $55,000 .30 $80,000 2.
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- 3. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect InformationA. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.05. The manager of a fast-food restaurant featuring hamburgers is adding salads to the menu. If they choose to include a salad bar (i.e., the MAKE option), it will cost $14,000 in annual fixed costs for the leased equipment and added employee, and $1 per salad variable cost. If they choose to have pre-made salads (i.e., the BUY option), it will cost $3 per salad. The manager expects to sell 7,500 salads per year. What is the make or buy quantity (i.e., the breakeven point between making vs. buying)?
- An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings (at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 Bonanza(B) 0.1 $200 m SO 0.4 Conditional…c. From the following decision tree, develop a payoff table and calculate: * Maximax, Minimax regret, Maximin, and EMV. ORs. 50,000 Good conditions (0.60) Poor conditions (0.40) -O Rs. 30,000 Apartment Building Good conditions (0.60) O Rs. 100,000 Office building Poor conditions (0.40) Purchase ORs -40,000 Warchouse Good conditions (0.60) Rs.30, 000 Poor conditions (0.40) O Rs. 10,000A company has the following alternatives for investment. Using the incremental B/C method, determine which alternative should be selected. Assumei = 10%. А В C Cost new $20,000 $24,000 $16,000 Annual O&M Cost $1,000/yr $800/yr $2,200/yr Annual income $5,600/yr $5,700/yr $5,400/yr Estimated life (yr) 7 9. Note: Incremental B/C method should be used in the solution. Solutions by using other methods will not be graded.
- Option 2: Raise prices by 50%. If this occurs, there is a 75% chance that an Entrepreneur will set up in competition this year. The board’s estimate of its annual profit in this situation would be as follows: 2A: With new competitor 2B: Without new competitor Probability Profit (Sh.) Probability Profit (Sh.) 0.25 150,000 0.5 200,000 0.5 120,000 0.3 150,000 0.25 80,000 0.2 100,000 Option 3: Expand the car park quickly at a cost of Sh. 50,000 keeping prices theSame. The profits are then estimated to be like 2B above, except that the probabilities would be 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. Required: Draw a decision tree for the above problem, including all the relevant data. Using expected values analyze the decision tree and recommend the best option to the owners of the car park.I want to answer to solve ㅠㅠㅠㅠ. Q1. A builder has located a piece of property that she would like to but and eventually build on. The land is currently zoned for four homes per acre, but she is planning to request new zoning. What she builds depends on approval of zoning requests and your analysis of this problem to advise her. With her input and your help, the decision process has been reduced to the following costs, alternatives, and probabilities Cost of land $2 MillionProbability of rezoning .6If the land is rezoned, there will be additional costs for new roads, lighting, and so on of $1 million. If the land is rezoned, the contractor must decide whether to build a shopping center or 1,500 apartments that the tentative plan shows would be possible. If she builds a shopping center, there is a 70% chance that she can sell the shopping center to a large department store chin for $4 million over her construction cost, which excludes the land; and there is a 30% chance that she can…Refer to the payoff table below of profits in ($000). Which decision alternative results from using the Conservative (Pessimestic) Decision Rule? PAYOFF TABLE High Demand Small Medium Large 35 300 550 -10 Moderate Demand 35 150 75 -10 Low Demand Do Nothing O A. Large O B. Do nothing OC. Medium O D. Small O E. Cannot be determined since relative frequencies are missing. 35 50 -45 -10
- The yearly demand for a seasonal, profitable item follows the distribution: Demand (units) Probability 1,000 20 2,000 30 3,000 40 4,000 10 A manufacturer is considering launching a project to produce this item and could produce it by one of three methods: A. (10%). Use existing tools at a cost of S6 per unit. B. (10%). Buy cheap, special equipment for $1,000. The value of the equipment at the end of the year (salvage value) is zero. The cost would be reduced to $3 per unit. C. (10%). Buy high-quality, special equipment for $10,000 that can be depreciated over four years (one fourth of the cost each year). The cost with this equipment would be only S2 per unit. Set up this project as a decision tree to find whether the manufacturer should approve this project, and if so, which method of production to use to maximize profit. Hint: Compare total annual costs. Assume that production must meet all demand; each unit demanded and sold means more profit.A payoff table is given as: S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600 (a) What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? (b) What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? (c) What decision should be made under minimal regret? (d) If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?B-1. Which is more desirable assuming data are COST Decenaine the cousen dagram. 60 90 60 1/3 (45) 45 99 40 50 50 30 20 /2 40 50 B-2. A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium or large stamping plant. A consultant's report indicates a 0.20 probability that demand will be low and 0.80 that demand will be high. If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the Net Present Value (NPV) will be $42M. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the NPV of $42M or expand greatly for a Net Present Value of $48M. The firm could build a medium size facility as a hedge: if demand turns out to be low, its NPV is estimated at $22M; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothing and realize a NPV of $46M, or could expand and realize a NPV of $50M. If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the NPV will be ($20M), whereas high demand will result in a NPV of $72M. a) Analyze and solve this problem using a…