1. Discuss the differences between Qualitative and Quantitative forecasting models. How do Associative and Time Series techniques differ?
Q: 1. a.) What is forecasting? b. Explain the importance of forecasting for managers like you? c.) What…
A: Forecasting is simply analyzing and evaluating the past or present data to determine or predict the…
Q: When to use of a time series forecasting technique, what assumptions are made?
A: The statistic techniques uses statistic on historical data and therefore the variables forecasted.…
Q: What are the different Forecasting Approaches? Explain each in detail
A: A Small Introduction about Forecasting Forecasting is done to figure out what kind of demand could…
Q: Which are the QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES IN FORECASTING?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: What are the use of a time series forecasting and what assumption are made ?
A: Globalization is the process of contact and connection between people, businesses, and governments…
Q: How forecasting helps in different disciplines of management science? Make a comparison between…
A: Forecasting is a prediction method that can use historical data and current market trends and…
Q: What are the similarities and differences between ridge regression and forecasting?
A: A Small Introduction about Regression Regression analysis is used to predict a continuous dependent…
Q: Identify the critical conditions and trade-offs to take into account when selecting forecasting…
A: When choosing the forecasting technology, the important considerations cost and accuracy are…
Q: Explain why it's important to keep track of forecasting errors.
A: For a time series or other phenomenon of interest, forecast error is the difference between the…
Q: The moving average forecasting method is typically bestfor products:a) Functional b) Innovativec)…
A: The correct answer is option c) Mature. Moving Average formula is used to average the number of…
Q: List the seven steps in the forecasting system?
A: Identify the problem: It is the step where the given problem is analyzed along with all the members…
Q: Describe what is a medium range forecasting and it's three possible applications
A: To determine: what is medium-range forecasting and its three possible applications
Q: Explain what are the forecasting process principles?
A: Forecasting is the science of forecasting what will occur in the future based on past and current…
Q: When should time series forecasting techniques be used?
A: The statistical data and, as a consequence, the projected features are analyzed using statistical…
Q: Why is forecasting necessary in OSCM?
A: Forecasting is the method of making future forecasts based on historical and current evidence. It's…
Q: Explain what are the use of a time series forecasting and discuss what assumption are made ?
A: Globalization is the process of bringing together individuals, businesses, and governments on a…
Q: What is a time series and the rationale for forecasting based on a time series analysis?
A: Forecasting refers to the prediction of the future based on some evidence or a strong base.…
Q: List the various type of analytical tools and methods used in forecasting?
A: Numerous statistical approaches are used to examine the data, which enables the data to be…
Q: Explain the tradeoff between responsiveness and stability in forecasting system that uses…
A: Forecasting: Forecasting can be termed as prediction of future sales or demand of a product. It is a…
Q: What is meant by the term tracking the forecast? In which two ways can forecasts go wrong?
A: Tracking the forecast means comparing the actual demand with the forecasted demand. It is used to…
Q: Forecasting Forecasting is important relative to capacity requirements planning. What are some of…
A: Qualitative data forecasting techniques mainly describes the characteristics and qualities of the…
Q: Identify the key differences between qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods. Which is…
A: Forecasting is the planning process that helps to predict the future aspects of the business or…
Q: what are the benefits of exponential smoothing forecasting?
A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: What forecasting technique makes use of written surveys or telephone interviews?
A: Ans- Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present…
Q: 1. Explain clearly the differences between forecasting and budgeting.
A: 1. Budgeting and Forecasting are instruments that organizations use to set up an arrangement for…
Q: Describe the ASSOCIATIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES?
A: Associative forecasting is the technique of forecasting which uses several independent variables as…
Q: Explain the distinction between short- and long-term forecasts?
A: Forecasting is a technique that enables the generation of educated forecasts by utilising historical…
Q: Justify the trade-off between responsiveness and consistency in a time-series forecasting system.
A: TradeoffTradeoff is a situational decision taken approach, that involves diminishing quality,…
Q: What are the challenges involved in forecasting?
A: Concept Introduction : Organizations use forecasting as a tool to think about and plan for the…
Q: Discuss the strategic importance of forecasting. What strategic decisions do organizations need to…
A: There is a huge competition between all the organizations these days to excel themselves in their…
Q: What is the distinction between forecasting and planning?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: Which type of forecasting approach, qualitative or quantitative, is better?
A: Qualitative approach: It is the method used to forecast decisions on the basis of intuition,…
Q: What is 'forecasting error'? What are the metrics used in measuring forecasting errors?
A: Forecasting Error A prediction error is the difference between the actual or real value of a time…
Q: List the analytical tools and methods used in forecasting?
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of the future on the basis of past and present data…
Q: Discuss the techniques of forecasting and its types. Also explain the limitations of each technique?
A: Forecasting - The process which is related with making the predictions for the future and the basis…
Q: ontrast the reactive and proactive approaches to forecasting. Give several examples of types of…
A: Forecasting: Forecasting is a technique and a method which takes into consideration a set of…
Q: Forecasting can be classified into which basic types?
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: State and explain the value of seasonala indices in forecasting and how are seasonal patterns…
A: To be determined: State and explain the value of seasonal indices in forecasting and how are…
Q: Describe qualitative forecasting?
A: Qualitative forecast uses expert intuitive judgment rather than a scientific analysis. This…
Q: Explain and give an example of a weighted average in forecasting
A: A Weighted Moving Average puts more weight on late information and less on past information. This is…
Q: Explain how the technology of forecasting can be improved
A: Forecasting is a long-term and short-term activity that the company engages in on a regular basis.…
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- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
- The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of Northern Central Bank. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? Is it guaranteed to produce better forecasts for the future?The demand (in number of units) for Apple iPad over the past 6 months at BestBuy is summarized below. Month Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Demand 45 48 Jan 2020 50 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 42 46 51 Consider the following three forecasting methods: • Two-month weighted moving average, with weights 6 and 2 (more weight assigned to more recent data) Exponential smoothing with a = 0.7. Let the initial forecast for Nov 2019 be 46. • A trend line projection in the form ŷ = a+bx . To simplify computations, transform the value of x (time) to simpler numbers – designate Nov 2019 as x=1, Dec 2019 as x= 2, etc. (a ) For each of the above methods, forecast the demand of Apple iPad for May 2020. (b) Consider only the two-month weighted moving average method, compute the MAD measure and the MSE measure using the data from Jan 2020. (c) Use the trend line to forecast the demand of Apple iPad for Dec 2020. Give your opinion regarding the reliability of the forecast.
- 4. The sales (in millions of dollars) for an 18-month period are as follows. Month Sales Month Sales 1 600 600 775 10 775 3 600 11 600 4 650 12 575 700 13 625 800 14 650 550 15 600 8 775 a. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use a = 0.1. Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE? b. Find the forecast for the next month using the best forecast method. 2.9) Gasoline sales Times Series week sales (1000s of gallons 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 With the above gasoline time series data, show the exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.1 i)Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of Alpha= 0.1 or alpha=0.2 for the gasoline sales time series? ii)Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy? iii)What are the results if MAPE is used?1. The number of bushels of apples sold at a roadside fruit stand over a 12-day period were PROBLEMS as follows: Day Numbar Sold Day Number Sold 25 35 31 29 33 32 38 10 40 37 32 34 11 37 12 If a two-period moving average has been used to forecast sales, what were the daily forecasts starting with the forecast for day 3? If a four-period moving average has been used, what were the forecasts for eacn uay starting with day 5? Plot the original data and each set of forecasts on the same graph. Which forecast has the greater tendency to smooth? Which forecast has the better ability to respond quickly to changes? What does use of the term sales instead of demand imply? b. C. 2. If exponential smoothing with a = .4 had been used to forecast daily sales for apples in Problem 1, determine what the daily forecasts would have been. Then, plot the original data, the exponential forecasts, and a set of naive forecasts on the same graph. Based on a visual comparison, is the naive more accurate or…
